Sporting Post - South Africa's Horse Racing & Breeding Newspaper

RACING

The Draw

Greyville 2000m
Winners
	Non-Favourites			Favourites				All Runners
9-16 rnrs	won	Quad%	avg SP	won	fav won	Quad%	avg SP	won	Quad%	avg SP
9-16 rnrs	won	Quad%	avg SP	won	fav won	Quad%	avg SP	won	Quad%	avg SP
Quad1	14	24%	5.6/1	9	39%	32%	2.0/1	23	27%	4.2/1
Quad2	16	28%	7.4/1	8	33%	29%	1.8/1	24	28%	5.5/1
Quad3	16	28%	7.5/1	6	27%	21%	2.0/1	22	26%	6.0/1
Quad4	12	20%	8.8/1	5	29%	18%	1.6/1	17	20%	6.0/1
Total	58		7.3/1	28	33%		1.9/1	86		5.5/1
1st/2nd
	Non-Favourites			Favourites				All Runners
9-16 rnrs	won	Quad%	avg SP	won	fav won	Quad%	avg SP	won	Quad%	avg SP
9-16 rnrs	won	Quad%	avg SP	won	fav won	Quad%	avg SP	won	Quad%	avg SP
Quad1	25	21%	6.0/1	20	44%	41%	1.8/1	45	26%	4.1/1
Quad2	35	29%	8.4/1	13	27%	27%	1.9/1	48	28%	6.6/1
Quad3	35	29%	7.9/1	10	22%	20%	1.7/1	45	26%	6.6/1
Quad4	26	21%	8.9/1	6	19%	12%	1.6/1	32	19%	7.5/1
Total	121		7.9/1	49	29%		1.8/1	170		6.1/1

Greyville 2000

With the number of races to research on the small side in number, perhaps not too much should be read in the analysis for Greyville’s 2000m.

Tne striking aspect, though, appears to be the percentage winning favourites from the lowest quadrant. The effect of the draw over 2000m at Greyville appears to be worst for the outside quadrant runners. Still, punters aren’t confused at all: there is a normal average of around 33% winning favourites for all quadrants combined. The tables show the effect of the draw for the course and distance, and how favourites have fared in the last five seasons.

One table is for winners, the other for horses finishing first or second, to give a cross-check. Only fields between 9 and 16 runners have been considered. The draw has been divided into (four) quadrants, to make it possible to deal with different field-sizes. If the draw is of no consequence, then each of the quadrants should consistently throw up winners 25% of the time. The table of winners shows that horses from the first two quadrants (lower half of the draw, in other words) make up 27% plus 28%, or 55% of winners. These figures are quite similar to those in the second table (the one showing horses finishing first or second).

The percentages of winning favourites averages an average 33% overall, with the average odds at 19/10, but peculiarly favourites from the inside quadrant get almost to 40% - at odds of 2/1! Conclusion The draw over 2000 at Greyville appears to be against the horses drawn higest (fourth quadrant). Favourites from all four quadrants have an average record, with 33% of them winning, but first quadrant favourites win 39% of the time (this trend confiremed when first & second finishers are considered). For horses running in the first two, horses from the fourth quadrant do worst (third and fourth quadrant for favourites), and exotic betters may do well to tilt their selections toward the inside quadrant(s) and to make sure that favourites are included when they are drawn in the first quadrant.