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NHA – Eyes On WSB 1900

Adjustment of horse population in pipeline

The NHA have published their weekend report on their merit rating assessments.

  • World Sports Betting Greyville 1900 (Grade 2)

Not one change was made to the rating of any of the 12 horses which contested the World Sports Betting Greyville 1900 (Grade 2) on Saturday, 18 May.  The Handicappers’ assessment of the various contestants proved to be well justified as the winner EYES WIDE OPEN, runner-up MAGNIFICENT SEVEN and third placed MADE TO CONQUER all ran to their respective ratings and as such all three of them can be considered to have been line horses.  DAWN ASSAULT, who finished ninth, as it happens also ran to his rating.

Fourth placed FRESNAYE raced off a rating of 108, but her mark had already been dropped to 104 following the publication of the weights for the Greyville 1900.   This was a consequence of the weights for the WSB Greyville 1900 being issued at first entry rather than supplementary entry stage in terms of the WSB Greyville 1900’s published Conditions.  She ran to within a pound of her new rating when achieving 103 and was left unchanged.  DOOSRA also ran just one pound below his rating and was also left unchanged.  The same is also true of DOUBLEMINT.

  • East Coast Cup (Listed)

ROY’S RIVIERA was raised from 95 to 97 following her win in the East Coast Cup (Listed) for fillies and mares over 2000m at Greyville on Saturday.  The Handicappers felt that she would not have run worse here than when she achieved a mark of 97 in winning an off-season pinnacle plate last October and accordingly used that performance to rate this event.  Furthermore, ROY’S RIVIERA runs to the same net 97 as when she was beaten less than one length behind MYABI GOLD in the Grade 2 Gold Bracelet over the same course-and-distance last July, which appeals to the Handicappers as being a very similar performance to this.

The specific conditions of the East Coast Cup state that the rating of placed horses cannot be picked up and accordingly second placed PERFECT AIR and fourth placed SNAPSCAN remain on 74 and 81 respectively despite actually achieving marks of 81 and 85 respectively.  Third placed MIYABI GOLD was left unchanged given that she had won the Listed Scarlet Lady in her most recent start.

A number of horses had their ratings dropped, however.  SABINA’S DYNASTY was trimmed from 106 to 105 to make her not higher than MIYABI GOLD, who had also beaten her in their last encounter in the SCARLET LADY.  EXPEDITE was dropped from 87 to 86, LUNA CHILD goes from 88 to 85, DYNASTY’S BLOSSOM drops from 95 to 93, WOODSTOCK FAIRY goes down from 71 to 70, and PARABOLA sees her rating cut from 78 to 75.

  • Syringa Handicap (Listed)

The Listed Syringa Handicap for fillies and mares over 1600m on the Turffontein inside track on Sunday, 19 May have produced something of a Handicapper’s dream finish when less than one length covered the first four to finish and four lengths covered the first 12 to finish in a 14 runner field.

Given the close nature of the finish, the winner BEING FABULOUS received the minimum 2-pound adjustment that the winner of any handicap race must get and was raised from 87 to 89.  The placed runners BULLSADE, PENNY ROYAL and REGAL GRADUATION can be considered to be line horses and all three of their ratings remained unchanged.

Several of the unplaced horses saw a drop in their rating, however.  ROUGE ALLURE goes from 90 to 88, while ROCKIN RUSSIAN had already been dropped from 83 to 79 after the weights were published and actually ran to 79 in the Syringa, so she remains on that mark.  This was a consequence of the weights for the Syringa being issued at first entry rather than supplementary entry stage in terms of the Syringa Handicap’s published conditions.  EMILY JAY was dropped from 89 to 86, ANNEKA was dropped from 86 to 84 and FOLK DANCE was trimmed to 92 from 93.

  • The National Horseracing Authority Roadshow Continues:

National Horseracing AuthorityPlease note that the NHA Handicapping Panel, Mr Lennon Maharaj, Mr Matthew Lips and Chief Executive of the NHA, Mr Vee Moodley, will be in attendance at Greyville Racecourse on 1 June 2019.

The following will be discussed:

Handicapping Methodology – in Brief

Handicappers to rate the Daily News 2000 in view of attendees

Discuss the proposed adjustment of the national horse population

Questions and Answers

Venue :           Classic Room – Greyville Racecourse

Start    :           16h45

All welcome to attend.

Have Your Say

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3 comments on “NHA – Eyes On WSB 1900

  1. Jay August says:

    “Discuss the proposed adjustment of the national horse population” ?

    1. Editor says:

      Word has it that 10lbs across the board being mooted for 1 August

  2. Jay August says:

    Mr Ed, upping the data by xx points is not in of itself an issue as long as the relative ratings remain the same, which I assume they will. The ratings will however not be strictly comparable to other countries without much adjustment, but then, have they ever been?

    It is, however, a problem where the reason for making such blanket adjustment is either flawed handicapping logic/method or extraneous restrictions on proper handicapping. We all know the latter applies with the unscientific “guidelines”. We don’t know whether the official handicappers employ flawed logic which while subtle in the short term, may drive large error in the longer term.

    Or is this a programming issue, where the operators are totally inflexible in their programming, and as a result the NHA are obliged to conform to that rigidity in programming? I’m guessing that all three of these issues are at play and together are making a mockery of the entire MR system.

    I implore the NHA to put out a discussion paper before they have this meeting at Greyville. As very few of us will be there I can’t see why this info is disclosed to a select few and not the rest of us. Information should not be drip fed but disclosed fully to all at the same time.

    Proper transparency has a handicap – full disclosure to all at the same time, and invitation of comment. Or is transparency only implied for those on the inside and therefore excludes punters? As for informed comment on this matter from the RA or the operator’s, I suspect it would be easier to get to Mars than ask for that!

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