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July – No ‘One-Horse Race’!

Plenty of value throughout

The Vodacom Durban July plot has thickened – from a ‘one horse’ race into at the very least, a four-horse festival.

That was the word from Hollywoodbets veteran Patrick Bradley when asked for his view on the impact of two great day’s of racing over the weekend.

Tiger Fish (Janus - Fisherman's Prayer)

Patrick Bradley’s first July – 1959 winner Tiger Fish (Janus – Fisherman’s Prayer)

Bradley, who has priced up on more Julys than most of us have had breakfasts, had a few interesting observations on the leading contenders for glory and turf lore on 6 July.

He suggests that recent Daily News winner Hawwaam (2-1) will still be the people’s choice, but now has some very serious competition. He goes so far as to suggest that he will really need to be the ‘new Horse Chestnut’ to substantiate his short-price favouritism.

Barahin and Soqrat fight out the Gr2 Golden Horseshoe 2018

Sunday’s lightly raced Jubilee Handicap winner Barahin (5-1), also from the De Kock stable, has played himself into serious contention.

“All along the De Kock stable said he was their July horse”, he points out.

Bradley suggests that the trick for punters will now be to try and work out whether a 3kg pull with Hawwaam is enough to secure Africa’s greatest horseracing prize.

He says that Saturday’s Gr1 Gold Challenge winner Do It Again (3,57-1) is as good as anything seen in South Africa in the last decade – almost understatedly labelling him a ‘serious, proven racehorse’.

Super impressive Do It Again – now runs in a handicap (Pic – Candiese arnewick)

But, he reminds punters that the July is a handicap and  there may well be plenty of value amongst some of the other well-performed keenly weighted sorts at double figure odds – the likes of 5yo Magnficent Seven and the his 4yo stablemates Made To Conquer and Doublemint, to mention a few..

Sun Met winner Rainbow Bridge (5-1) had no luck in the running in the Gold Challenge and has to be given a chance to find his wings over the 2200m of the July.

There is plenty of unresolved speculation as to who will ride the Eric Sands gelding and Bradley is convinced there is nothing much between the two of them.

Some value? Made To Conquer may be worth a look (Pic – Candiese Marnewick)

He adds that more than half the field will be under sufferance at the weights and there is lots of potential value to be had for punters with a personal preference outside of the ‘big four’.

“Draws and luck in running could prove critical – Barahin draws 2 and Hawwaam draws 18, as an example – suddenly there is lots to play for!”

Bradley, who watched his first July when Tiger Fish won in 1959, says that  it has become quite a tricky race to price up.

“The market is now going to be determined by supply and demand.I don’t think the public has had it so good for some time,” he added.

Please note that quoted prices are subject to change*

See the Hollywood betting here

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44 comments on “July – No ‘One-Horse Race’!

  1. Cecil Pienaar says:

    At last someone mentions my July fancy – 4yo Magnificent Seven. Thx to SP article 12 Feb, I got on early with Hollywood at 66-1, biggest danger Rainbow Bridge.

  2. Adrian says:

    Mr Editor is not possible to know on the current ratings what weight will magnificent seven carry in the July.?

  3. Adrian says:

    Sorry is it possible to know.

    1. Editor says:

      1. The weights to be carried shall not exceed 60kg and shall not be less than 52kg.
      2. Minimum weight for 4-year-olds and older: Colts and Geldings 53kg Fillies and Mares 52kg
      2. Maximum weight for 4-year and older
      2. at publication of weights: Colts and Geldings 60kg Fillies and Mares 59kg
      3. Minimum weight for 3-year-olds: Colts and Geldings 53kg Fillies 52kg
      3. Maximum weight for 3-year-olds
      3. at publication of weights: Colts and Geldings 57kg Fillies and Mares 56kg
      4. No penalties shall be incurred after the publication of weights.
      5. Notwithstanding 2 and 3 above, the Handicapper will raise all weights proportionately to 60kg. Should the top
      5. weight originally allotted be less than 60kg at final declaration.
      Entries: Close 11:00 Wednesday, 17 April – R 2,300 (Fee R 2,000 + VAT R 300) (Non Refundable)

      Final Supp. Entries: Close 11:00 Tuesday, 18 June – R 25,300 (Fee R 22,000 + VAT R 3,300) (Non Refundable)
      Weights Published: Tuesday, 18 June
      Final Declaration: Close 11:00 Monday, 24 June – R32 500 (Refunded if not selected to run).
      Entry and Declaration fees must be fully paid by Monday, 1 July.
      Final Field and Draw: Announcement of the Final Field and Barrier Draws will take place on Tuesday, 25 June.
      Final Field: **20 horses will be carded for this event (18 Horses + 2 Reserves)** The Reserves to be
      scratched by 8:15 Friday 5 July. Elimination will be at the sole and unfettered discretion of
      the Company.

  4. Collin devanpershad says:

    So whos riding haawaam n whos riding rainbow bridge

    1. Editor says:

      Million dollar question

  5. Spencer says:

    Isn’t Aron Xabanlini riding Hawaam 🙂



    Hawwaam = Marcus — if he picks a horse other than Hawwaan and Hawwaan has accepted, I’ll gladly bathe your feet.

  7. trevor says:

    Hawaam with Marcus is a winner

  8. Mo says:

    What weight wud eyes wide open carry. Also iv read that Hawwaam wud carry 56. Howcum not 57 seeing his merit rating ,& 3 grade 1 wins including the facile win in open company.

    1. Editor says:

      July Weights : Weights
      Pref Name Age MR Trainer Kgs WFA
      1 DO IT AGAIN 4G 125 Justin Snaith 60.00 0
      2 RAINBOW BRIDGE 4G 124 Eric Sands 59.50 0
      3 HAWWAAM 3C 121 Mike de Kock 56.00 2
      4 RETURN FLIGHT 3F 109 Sean Tarry 52.00 2
      5 HEAD HONCHO 5G 122 Andre Nel 58.50 0
      6 TWIST OF FATE 3C 117 Joey Ramsden 54.00 2
      7 LADY IN BLACK 4F 112 Dennis Drier 53.50 0
      8 LEGAL EAGLE 7G 116 Sean Tarry 55.50 0
      9 TILBURY FORT 5G 110 Sean Tarry 53.00 0
      10 EYES WIDE OPEN 4C 109 Glen Kotzen 53.00 0
      11 MADE TO CONQUER 5G 108 Justin Snaith 53.00 0
      12 MAGNIFICENT SEVEN 4G 104 Justin Snaith 53.00 0
      13 DIVINE ODYSSEY 4G 111 J A Janse van Vuuren 53.00 0
      14 HERO’S HONOUR 4G 106 Gary Alexander 53.00 0
      15 BARAHIN 3C 108 Mike de Kock 53.00 2
      16 FRESNAYE 4F 104 Joey Ramsden 52.00 0
      17 DOUBLEMINT 4C 104 Justin Snaith 53.00 0
      18 MIYABI GOLD 4F 105 Justin Snaith 52.00 0
      19 CAMPHORATUS 4F 105 R A Hill/S R Hill 52.00 0
      20 ZILLZAAL 3C 104 Sean Tarry 53.00 2

      Note – Barahin MR needs to be updated – no impact on weight*
      Kind thanks to Jay August

  9. Frankie says:

    Frankie Zackey…Guy’s take it as 99.9 confirmed
    Hawwaam the winner will be ridden by Anton Marcus
    Barahin my exact horse to be ridden by Musi Yeni
    Rainbow Bridge who has 3 lenghts to find on Do It Again to be ridden by Gavin Lerena

  10. Shadrack says:

    Now i saw barahin as main danger for hawwaam

  11. Frankie says:

    Frankie Zackey…the guy’s that do there homework study form and have a good idea on handicapping then they should agree with my facts…let’s clear the air before bookmakers get away from getting a good hiding…the points I’m going to point out is to the guys that are Anti Hawwaam for whatever reason or are not totally convinced that Hawwaam is the best in SA…No thumb sucking it’s in black and white… Hawwaam’s time in the daily news was 1 second slower than the fillies same day same distance same venue yes we all agree it’s in black and white was the Daily News run at very moderate pace stop go stop go for most of the race yes absolutely…did Corne Orffer on Charles thank his lucky stars for not landing over the rails and a few more strides further could very easily had landed on the canvas I’m absolutely convinced he did watch the replay…did Mike have Hawwaam spot on for the daily news I doubt that very much knowing Mike there was at least 15 % in reserve to play with come July day…that point is debatable for the non believers…Now if one is going on times let’s go back to The Premier’s and the Gerald Rosenberg same day same distance same venue where Hawwaam slams Return Flights time by 2,2 seconds with a ton in hand had Marcus shaken him up to the line would it be fair to say more like 3.2 seconds faster…now the piont I’m making is that Return Flight runs only 1 second slower than Silvano’s Pride’s time in the Woolavington same day same distance same venue as the Daily News so if times and pace of a Race is something to go on I then hope I’ve cleared that up…do the maths…what absolutely baffles me is to read that Hawwaam has beaten nothing of note up to now…Legal Eagle wins the Green Point I wonder who was behind ??? Legal Eagle gets beat 4 lenghts in the Queens Plate to Do it Again then Legal Eagle runs 2.2 lenghts off Rainbow Bridge in the Met and in all fairness never had the best of passege ways in the so let’s say had everything gone accordingly Legal Eagle runs maybe at best a half a lenght closer…Now let’s not forget about Do It Again talking about what could go wrong in a race went wrong for Do it Again that was bad but really bad BTW betting world has got Do it Again and Rainbow Bridge in a match play 9/10 the pair party party party with Do it again…Now in the Premier’s would if be fair to say without short changing myself that Hawwaam could have won by 8 lenghts had Marcus pressed the Nitros button and not by 5.5 lenghts slamming Legal Eagle instead Marcus decides to gear him down to 4th gear trust me it could easily have been 8 or more lenghts…Hawwaam’s win in the classic had they used National Parks as the line horse who has a rating of 117 and not Barahin Hawwaam then runs to a rating of around 130 his winning margin was just under 6 lenghts if I’m not mistaken….Anyway that was fun i hope that i’ve made a bit of sense out of my crazy thinking….Hawwaam will win from Barahin who i personally think is much better than a 112 rating that’s just my personal opinion I say his true ability rating is around 120… Cheers From Zack Attack and good luck with the July guy’s

  12. Jay August says:

    Mo, Hawwaam gets 4 half kilos from Do It Again (124-121MR) and 2kgs WFA so as DIA is the top weight at 60kgs Hawwaam should carry 56kgs if Do It Again starts.

    If Do It Again does not start but Rainbow Bridge does then Hawwaam will carry 56.5kgs.

    If neither RB or DIA run then Hawwaam will carry 57kgs as Head Honcho will become top weight.

  13. Ernest Le Roux says:

    Pat dont forget Pollician from what draw and weight

  14. MAYEN NAIDOO says:

    Guys beware boom horses have a dismal record in the July. Remember Jackson. There are many a Jacksons in this July. Beware. Bookies love it

  15. Trevor says:

    Guys I do like the way magnificent seven ran on in the last 200 to finish in his last run in greyville. Justin snaith did say watch this horse in the kzn season. He is not my first pick but one of my fancies.
    I will side with Rainbow bridge come the big day, but if Hawaam runs, I make Rainbow Bridge second fidle to the champ. Do it again can he do it again I doubt it, just my opinion. But he did win well last time out.
    I would like to see Gavin Lerena ride either Hawaam or Rainbow Ridge. When I met him last year in the July we both looked at the parade ring and I told him next year you will be on the winner come July day, seeing he was injured and couldn’t ride for months then. So whatever he rides I’m on it win or place.

  16. Andre Joubert says:

    personally i do not think hawwaam will win… barahin has been MDK july horse all along… however they all have to beat do it again and rainbow bridge… eyes wide open baby

  17. Bling says:

    Hawwam – Anton
    Bahrain – either Simons or Gavin
    Rainbow Bridge – Bernard

    Winner -Rainbow Bridge

  18. Frankie says:

    Frankie Zackey…Bling how on earth is Gavin going to ride Barahin 53kg i assuming he’ll need to edited ** off…gets your ducks in a row

  19. Niren says:

    with that weight a good place bet for me is going to be Zilzaal and Return flight

  20. mike says:

    gavin lerena is the best jockey around he will ride rainbow bridge the way he should be ridden

  21. Vincent Prince says:

    Guys this is my selection for the VDJ
    1- Do it Again 2 – Made to Conquer 3- Hawwaam

  22. Pierre de Wit says:

    There is only but one horse … and that is Hawwaam winning the July and many more Big races. Very fast over the last 400m. We have not seen the very best in this horse. Will be one of the world’s greatest horses.

  23. Rian says:

    Trust me Pierre if he is as you say going to be one of the Worlds best horses in the World, he surely wont be running in this July for a few MILLIONS ZAR
    Yet to see any signs of Greatness

  24. Ronny Naidoo says:

    8 LEGAL EAGLE 7G 116 Sean Tarry 55.50 0
    Please watch replay when A Marcus rode him in previous July – badly obstructed and changed direction twice. This derby winning horse has nothing to lose but what a way to end his sparkling career with a gallant gun to tape try this time around with 55.5kg.


    SP bloggers – for those who are interested, what about a bloggers P6 perm for July Day ? …only 18 days to go.

    I’m willing to collect everybody’s fancies via e-mail, and construct a perm.

    Any thoughts ?

    1. Editor says:

      Can’t miss with all the experts’ input!


    oh Mr Editor, your’e a comic. My experience is that the so- called experts loss big like a bomb, so I’ll say : Me To Nagasaki

  27. Armchair Expert says:

    Considering that you seem to judge value as a binary win or lose, William, perhaps it is not surprising the experts lose so often in your estimation. After all when you cannot fathom out what value is then how can you determine what the experts are actually doing in their wagering? A clever fella would have asked the experts to explain whether given the likely payout, expected pool size, the probable number of lines needed to optimize all possible combinations and the amount needed to invest, whether a bet is advisable and offers an edge (value!). Instead you revert to type and ask the binary question – what is your P6 combo? My answer as an observer of the experts is they do not know yet as the decision needed to answer all the above can only be made on the July day – the later the better. Sorry!


    Are you finished yet, Armchair Expert ?

    I don’t know what happened to you, I simply asked if a few bloggers wanted to pool together for a July P6 perm and FUN.

    I don’t know how simpler I can make it.

    1. Editor says:

      William, maybe it’s a bit early still? Should be a few interested – where’s that soldier, Cecil?

  29. Rian says:

    Sounds like a game of Chess Armchair !!!!!!!, CHECK THE PRICES of the last few Julys and you will see it wasnt the EXPERTS who came out tops


    Indeed Mr. Editor, we don’t want to cause a revolution, do we .

  31. Cecil Pienaar says:

    Hello William, Mr Ed. Sorry long day here in ‘sleepy hollow’ …

    Oh yes, I am definitely in …. 2 early fancies below

    * Frosted Gold ( unlucky last time )
    * Magnificent Seven ( to be added )

    Have a Good Night.

    1. Editor says:

      Agree, Cecil, Frosted Gold – came on very late


    Closer to the time, I’ll circulate an empty template of the Pick 6 races and e-mail to everybody that is interested.

    This to ensure that all interested/expert/amateur/handicapped/funloving participates selections are pooled together.

    I’ll elaborate closer to the time.

    I’ll also be willing to hand in all 3 of my passports, at the local constabulary, to ensure that I don’t make a run for it with the loot.

    Until laters

  33. Rian says:

    Its a very good idea William , difficult to win it on ones own, and cant wait to see the perm %


    Exactly Rian, I get bored playing on my own.

    Everybody sends me the simple template (via e-mail) for the 6 races, with main 2 highlighted in each leg, and then the extra selection in each leg.

    I glue it together by Friday 12 noon, showing everybody’s fancies and the proposed perm. I then confirm a monies received by 6 pm Friday for the sake of transparency.

    Sunday morning I jet off to the Bahamas…easy jet


    Oh, I heard through the grape vine that the SP owner is very enthusiastic to sponsor the first Eight Thousand, if we lose.

  36. Shadrack says:

    Hey guys you don’t believe hawwaam will win Vodacom durban july

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