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Vardy Moves To 134

One World is now a 130

One of South Africa’s major racing weekends of the year is behind us.

This is how the NHRA Handicappers saw the performances and adjusted the various mert ratings.

  • Gr1 L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate

VARDY has had his rating increased from 128 to 134 after his emphatic defeat of a top class field on WFA terms in the Grade 1 L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate over 1600m at Kenilworth (summer course) on Saturday 11 January.

While the Handicappers are cognizant of the fact that multiple delays at the start of the race may have had a negative impact on some horses’ performance, it nevertheless remains a fact that VARDY led home the same “trifecta” as when he won the Grade 2 Green Point Stakes four weeks earlier and there is no reason to question the level of his performance here.

Sun Met second favourite Vasdy is now a 134 (Pic – Chase Liebenberg)

In assessing the race, the Handicappers decided that the best line horse to use would be ultra-consistent fourth placed TWIST OF FATE, who was used to his previous career best rating of 129 (achieved as it happens on the last occasion that he raced over 1600m) to rate the Queen’s Plate.  As such, his rating goes up from 127 to 129.

Runner-up ONE WORLD was raised from 127 to130 after he finished 2nd behind VARDY for the third time in consecutive meetings with the winner, while 3rd placed RAINBOW BRIDGE remains unchanged on 134 (equal to the winner.)

The only horse to be given a drop was Undercover Agent, who goes from 127 to 124.

  • Gr1 Cartier Paddock Stakes

QUEEN SUPREME has seen her rating upped from 117 to 122 after she ran out a very comfortable winner of the Grade 1 Cartier Paddock Stakes (WFA) for fillies and mares over 1800m at Kenilworth on Saturday.  Fourth placed MIYABI GOLD was considered to be the most suitable line horse and accordingly remains unchanged on 115.

Runner-up DRIVING MISS DAISY was raised from 110 to 115, but in contrast 3rd placed SILVANO’S PRIDE was given a small drop from 119 to 117.

There was a similar reduction for 5th placed FRONT AND CENTRE, who goes from 122 to 120 and is accordingly rated lower than the winner.  In the only other change, SANTA CLARA was dropped from 120 to 117.

  • Gr2 Glorious Goodwood Peninsula Handicap

BELGARION has had his rating increased from 109 to 113 after he quickened well and comfortably won the Grade 2 Glorious Goodwood Peninsula Handicap over the Kenilworth 1800m on Saturday.

This clearly progressive sort is now undefeated from three starts since he was gelded in April of last year and he also has a perfect 3-for-3 record in handicap races.

Third placed MAJESTIC MOZART was used as the line horse here, and as such his rating remains unchanged, while runner-up HERODOTUS goes up from 109 to 110.

However, this increase is solely due to the fact that he carried half-a-kilo overweight, if not for which he would also be running to his rating.

Three horses were given ratings drops.  RUN RED goes from 104 to 102, EYES WIDE OPEN was dropped from 119 to 118, and PRICELESS RULER is down to 105 from 107.

  • Gr3 Heineken Chairman’s Cup

DOUBLEMINT has seen his rating go up from 116 to 118 after he landed the Grade 3 Chairman’s Stakes over 2500m at Kenilworth on Saturday.  Third placed ATYAAB was considered to make for the correct line horse here and therefore his rating remains unchanged.

In terms of the specific conditions of the race, no horse other than the winner can be given a rating’s increase and therefore runner-up CROME YELLOW remains on 98 despite running to 106, while fourth placed STRATHDON (who runs to a level of 110) has to remain unaltered on 109.

Fifth placed SWIFT SURPRISE achieved a rating of 100, but remains unchanged on 91.

Three horses had their ratings dropped.  TAP O’ NOTH is down from 116 to 115, PRINCESS IRENE drops from 105 to 104, and GIMME ONE NIGHT (who won this race a year ago, when it was however contested over 3200m) is down from 103 to 102.

  • Gr2 Cartier Sceptre Stakes

CELTIC SEA has had her rating increased slightly from 125 to 126 after she romped to an impressive win in the Grade 2 Cartier Sceptre Stakes for fillies and mares over 1200m at Kenilworth on Friday.

This increase ensures that she is rated marginally above runner-up CLOUDS UNFOLD, who remains unchanged on 125.

It was felt that it would be premature to drop CLOUDS UNFOLD, who was having her second start after returning from an injury-enforced lay-off and who put up a much more encouraging performance than in her first run back.

Fourth placed THIRD RUNWAY was used as the line horse here, which means of course that her rating remains unchanged, but third placed GOLDEN CHANCE goes up from 105 to 108.

Five horses were given a rating’s drop.  FREEDOM CHARTER is down from 114 to 113, MISS FLORIDA goes from 110 to 107, TEMPLE GRAFIN is down to 115 from 117, CANUKEEPITSECRET was trimmed from 109 to 108, and COUSIN LIZ is down from 99 to 97.

  • Listed Ardmore Jamaica Handicap

PRINCIPESSA has had her rating raised from 87 to 95 after she got up in the shadow of the post to win the Listed Ardmore Jamaica Handicap for fillies and mares over 2000m at Kenilworth on Friday.

It must be borne in mind that PRINCIPESSA was one pound (or half a kg) under sufferance at the weights and this pound was also added on to the adjustment which she received.

Fourth placed HEAVEN’S EMBRACE was used as the line horse, which leaves her rating unchanged.  Runner-up SLEEPING SINGLE goes up from 94 to 100, while third placed KELPIE was raised from 105 to 110.

Only two horses were given a rating’s drop.  STELVIO was trimmed from 92 to 91, while MADONNA goes from 97 to 95.

  • Listed Swallow Stakes 

SARAH remains unchanged on a rating of 119 after she easily won the Listed Swallow Stakes for three-year-old fillies over the Turffontein 1160m straight course on Saturday.

In fact, by using the winner (who was very well treated by the weight conditions of the race and who was therefore entitled to win it with such ease)  as the line horse runner-up GIN FIZZ also runs to her rating (108) and as such she effectively becomes a line horse as well.

Third placed RISK TAKER goes up from 92 to 102, and fourth finisher TRUE CHARM was raised from 98 to 105.   THE FIFTH WAVE was raised from 88 to 93, while in the only drop TALLINN is down from 99 to 97.

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13 comments on “Vardy Moves To 134

  1. Pops says:

    Very soon we going to have a South African race horse with a MR of 140.But why stop there MR 150 sounds so much better.

  2. Frankie says:

    Frankie Zackey…apologise for posting my article on this platform seeing while they on about handicapping I thought it would be appropriate,,can any of the so called handicappers pls EXPLAIN why you lambasted Alison Wright’s runner Binary Star that’s running tomorrow at Scottsville with a MR91 after taking 5 runs to crack it’s maiden and bearing in mind the runner up was a filly…What chance does he stand of being competitive,,my opinion ZERO unless the gelding improves him out of sight,,if that’s not the case then the owner/trainer now bears the brunt knowing he’ll now need 3 to 5 runs to go missing to get his MR back to a suitable MR to be competitive again..I can mention 50 off the cuff if need be that are dead and buried because of their current MR…poor owners

    1. karel says:

      Frankie, Frankie – you are making this rant up, aren’t you.
      Binary Star ran 11 lengths behind following the win, 14th of 14, after a break of 3 months – and you blame that result on the MR?
      You should check the ratings of the horses that finished behind Binary Star when it won – and what ratings they produced subsequently.
      I’m sure Formstar will give you that information in a heartbeat.
      Today Binary runs in a Novice Plate where MR cannot influence the result – hopefully we’ll get another look at what rating is appropriate.

  3. Brian says:

    They go up by 6 plus points, and drops so slowly tjoooo

  4. Frankie says:

    Frankie Zackey…Karel you obviously missing the point of my question…the question was why did the handicappers hit Binary Star with a MR of 91 after winning the maiden.. bear in mind that it beat a filly and it took 5 runs to breaks it’s maiden…You cute I must check out the runners who ran behind Binary Star…after making that comment Karel I’m now confused it’s taken the balance of the field 50 runs from that formline for 2 horses to come and win the balance will die maidens…no disrespect to the owners…Karel let me remind you again I’m talking about the (maiden) win buddy,,why was Bimary Star hit with a MR 91 ?

    1. karel says:

      … because that’s what it ran to!

      Oh, and the filly he beat?
      Ran in the R2.5m Ready to Run Stakes in December (against colts), posting a rating at least on the level of when she was beaten by your horse.
      And a good few of the other runners from Binary’s winning race posted ratings at least as good as what they did there.
      Relatively speaking, there’s nothing wrong with the rating.
      Your observation about how many winners came from your race is entirely immaterial, got nothing to do with ratings.
      Useless stats will get you useless answers.

  5. Frankie says:

    Frankie Zackey…Karel…Formstar ?

    1. karel says:

      Apologies, Formgrids of course, not Formstar. I erred.

  6. Frankie says:

    Frankie Zackey…Karel a careful handicapper like yourself does not often err so apology accepted

  7. Michael Jacobs says:

    A maiden winner that gets anything from 88 up is doomed! How can you win a maiden race and get anything above 80? But we’ve been up this road before so let’s not open this can of worms again

  8. Michael Jacobs says:

    I’ve been attending Cape racing for over 30 years, Kenilworth racecourse is my homeground. I have never in 30 years seen the amount of delays, equipment and tack breakages, reshoeing at start, etc. What has happened over the years to the expertise and horsemanship in the industry? Is it bad trainers and grooms, inefficient farriers, poorly trained officials, starters, stipes and handlers? But i dont recall these delays particulrly for big races 20 or 30 years ago?

  9. WILLIAM MILKOVITCH says:

    Does the NHA realize that they are working in half kilo’s ….. or have they ever realized that ?

  10. Shaun says:

    Well said Michael.

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