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Celtic Sea Unchanged On 126

Singforafa flattered by fast ground conditions

After another busy weekend of feature racing, the National Horseracing Authority handicapping team have provided their reports on the merit rating adjustments.

  • Gr1 Golden Horse Sprint

WARRIOR’S REST has had his merit rating raised from 113 to 116 after his success in the Grade 1 Golden Horse Sprint (Handicap) over 1200m at Scottsville on Saturday 4 July.  The Handicappers were unanimous in their view that 3rd placed KASIMIR and 4th finisher CHIMICHURI RUN made for the correct line horses to use and accordingly they remain unchanged on 128 and 126, respectively.

Runner-up ULTRA MAGNUS was raised from 113 to 115, while 5th placed CARTEL CAPTAIN (who was 7 pounds under sufferance at the weights) goes up from 106 to 109.  There was also an increase for 6th finisher INVIDIA, who was 5 pounds under sufferance and who carried 0.5 kg overweight.  He goes up from 108 to 111.

The only drop was for FROSTED GOLD, who goes from 112 to 110.

  • The Witness Gr1 South African Fillies Sprint

CELTIC SEA remains unchanged on 126 after she grabbed a last stride success in the Grade 1 South African Fillies Sprint over 1200m at Scottsville on Saturday.  The Handicappers took the view that the 122-rated runner-up RUN FOX RUN was the best line horse to use in assessing this Weight-For-Age contest and as such her rating remains unchanged.  In rating the race this way, CELTIC SEA also runs to 122.

3rd placed SINGFORAFA was raised from 116 to 119.  She in fact runs to 121, but the Handicappers were cognisant of the fact that the Scottsville track was running very fast on the day and that this suited the very speedy SINGFORAFA to the point where she is probably a little flattered to have found herself in a three-way photo finish with the two highest rated runners in the race.

There was an increase also for 6th placed LINEAR, who ran well above her rating in this high class field and who goes up from 92 to 97.  There were drops for three horses.  MISS FLORIDA is down from 105 to 102, TRAVELLING LIGHT drops from 97 to 95, and WINTER SUN goes from 95 to 93.

  • Gr3 World Sports Betting Cup Trial

CAPOEIRA has had his rating raised from 110 to 115 following his victory in the Grade 3 World Sports Betting Cup Trial (handicap) over 1750m at Scottsville on Saturday.  Here, it was decided that 4th placed PACK LEADER made for the most suitable line horse and his rating remains unchanged on 111.

Runner-up NEXUS was raised from 105 to 107, while fourth placed SOVEREIGN SPIRIT (who was 3 pounds under sufferance and carried 0.5 kg overweight) was raised from 95 to 100.  There were no other ratings increases, but three horses received a drop.  MORE MAGIC was trimmed from 102 to 101, TILBURY FORT drops from 112 to 109, and HERODOTUS is down to 107 from 109.

  • Gr3 Jubilee Handicap

DIVINE ODYSSEY has had his rating increased from 114 to 117 after he won the Gr3 Jubilee Handicap over 1800m at Turffontein (standside track) on Sunday 5 July.  Here, it was decided that 3rd placed FULL MAST made for the best line horse, but as he carried 0.5 kg overweight his rating goes up from 101 to 102.  Runner-up MARSHALL FOCH (who was 1 pound under sufferance) goes up from 98 to 100.

No other horses received a ratings increase, but there were several drops.  PERFECT TIGRESS goes from 106 to 105, LEOPOLD is down from 108 to 106, D’ARRIVEE was cut from 106 to 105, DAWN ASSAULT goes from 115 to 114, and lastly ALIBI GUY drops from 101 to 98.

  • Listed World Sports Betting East Cape Derby

National Horseracing AuthorityAMERICAN PRINCESS remains unchanged on a rating of 90 following her win in the World Sports Betting East Cape Derby over 2400m at Fairview (turf track) on Friday 3 July.  3rd placed MISS LA DEE DA (a proven stayer with a win over 2500m to her name) was deemed to be the most suitable line horse and remains unaltered on 78.  In rating the race this way, the winner runs to 89 and hence the reason for her unchanged rating.

Runner-up ROCK ALOE was given a slight increase from 91 to 92, while 4th placed AUGUST LEAVES was raised from 80 to 83.

There were no other increases, but two horses received a drop.  BLUSHING BRIDE was trimmed from 82 to 81, while BHALTAIR goes from 97 to 95.

The Handicappers noted that, while BHALTAIR had won his penultimate start, that was in a novice plate where he only ran to a rating of 82, and as such were happy to give him a drop only two runs later.

  • NHRA Media Release on Tuesday 7 July 2020

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32 comments on “Celtic Sea Unchanged On 126

  1. Steve Reid says:

    The problem with the handicappers is they can be “cognisant” of conditions when it suits them and ignore them when it doesn’t.. I asked last week for feedback on the rating given to Golden Belle and have received no answer. If ever you needed a track running fast, Turffontein on 29 June 2020 was it. Throw in a very apparent draw bias on the day and that rating will be very interesting to follow.

    1. Editor says:

      Steve
      We sent your query through but received no acknowledgement or reply

  2. Steve Reid says:

    There is nothing more consistent that the NHA when difficult questions are asked of them. Receiving no response is par for the course, but thanks for trying Lance.

    I have the view that the quandary the handicappers find themselves in is more about the 3yo filly and where this places her among her peers, than the quick track.. The 119 makes Singforafa the highest rated 3yo in the country at present. That doesnt sound right to me regardless of distances run.

  3. Jay August says:

    Steve, on not coming back on Golden Belle – that is my fault. I agreed to discuss Lennon’s explanation with you on SP as I had the same debate with him personally. I must have forgotten to do so!

    That explanation was and I quote as this is me merely being the messenger – that the three-year-old sprinting females have raced against older horses more so than the colts or middle distance performers and that they have had their ratings develop faster as a result.

    On the consistency in taking conditions into account I concur that that is one aspect that has to be more closely monitored otherwise it appears that there is a flip-flop from one weekend to another.

    These press releases should start with a general discussion of the prevailing conditions each meeting and how those conditions may or may not have effected the final ratings, whether ratings were applied consistently with the past in mind, or whether there has been a change in application and why.

    The lack of detail is the devil.

  4. M(artin)Gram(atica) says:

    Can a handicapping expert tell me what Singforafa would be rated should the result have been identical but the going heavy?

  5. Jay August says:

    I have a question for Mgram and the experts on SP.

    Assume three horses finish within two short heads of each other at wfa and repeat the exact order of finish in two subsequent and consecutive races, under different underfoot conditions and varying pace each time, and at two different centres and courses; if the third horse starts the sequence 15 points lower than the first two, what rating does the third horse have relative to the other two at the end of the three races and why?

  6. M(artin)Gram(atica) says:

    Jay August I am not sure why you do not answer my question but reply with another question?

  7. Jay August says:

    Was I obligated to answer that question. Was it asked of me directly?

  8. M(artin)Gram(atica) says:

    Jay August I ask a question to be answered by people with more knowledge than I have. Its a straight forward question and I would like to hear opinions on it. You respond to my question with what could be viewed as a sarcastic response, and when I ask for an explanation, I get the attitude. Let me state for the record that I took the time to ask a question in the hope of receiving an answer. I am most definitely not an expert on handicapping.

    Can anyone else assist? I dont have the time for nonsense other “experts” seem to have to waste.

  9. Jay August says:

    Mgram, if you think my response was sarcastic then the assumption is all yours. If you had taken the time to think about my question I may have guided you to an answer, but as you cannot see its merits I have not much more to say.

  10. donald bradshaw says:

    Mgram asked a legitimate simple valid question in good faith and makes it clear that he is not an expert and is seeking guidance from person / s who have a better understanding of handicapping of which you , Jay , are one.

    Jay , you then posed Mgram a conundrum on a hypothetical situation to which you can hardly expect an answer to from Mgram and Mgram is still no nearer to an answer or opinion on his original question ?

    May I then ask you for your time to answer his question or give your opinion as I would also be very interested in your answer / opinion and possibly to that of your conundrum ?

  11. Jay August says:

    I also asked a legitimate question in good faith but have not been afforded any protection from that question. Instead I stand loosely accused of something.

    My “conundrum” may seem difficult or at worst sarcastic, but I can assure you it is none of the latter. It is an example of the type of thinking that one would engage in in answering the question posed by MGram, whether purposefully or intuitively. It should not evoke mansteria but so it has and here we are. Now that last part is a bit of sarcasm!

    I have asked Lennon Maharaj from the NHA if he would respond to the questions being asked by both Steve and MGram, and now Donald. I can’t promise he will but hopefully I have persuaded him and he will do so in the next two days.

    1. Editor says:

      Thanks Jay

  12. Frankie says:

    Frankie Zackey…Donald is see you use a word *LIGITIMATE* i would HIGHLIGHT that name in your black book and pay special attention when he runs again and thereafter…I wonder if there’s a bookmaker that would lay me a 100/1 about the 2 year-old Ligitmate now winning the 2021 July…

    1. Editor says:

      He was way out of ground – finished well
      Watch it here
      https://youtu.be/JY1Uk8aE5jY?t=29

  13. Jay August says:

    Frankie, now you are throwing fairy dust around. Is this the Legitimate that ran today and finished fourth?

    If it is what makes you that confident in taking a bet of this type? I’ll concede the run looked interesting but that was about it for me.

    Note to self = watch Legitimate over further next time.

  14. PL.NEL says:

    Ah Frankie I like it, and will be watching. Back on handicapping,, going is such a very important factor and its with deep regret that we now face our COMPUTERFORM without VAR, the time going indicator factored on that day as an average of the whole days racing and was a indication of underfoot going and wind influence. This information was always a key factor whilst determining a performance, and was a good indication of pace or ability. Example would be a soft going Kenilworth
    day with little wind to a windy day, which on times could be a difference of 20 length…It’s this type of information that separates horse racing from lucky numbers,, now we have to rely on the handicapping to spin this number..

  15. Frankie says:

    Frankie Zackey….
    you are spot on Jay,, yes it was the 2 year old that ran 4th today just like I spotted Dynasty winning his 1st race saying there and then there’s your July winner just like I spotted Hawwaam…just for your ears Jay I eat drink and sleep watching horseracing…

  16. Frankie says:

    Frankie Zackey…
    Maybe MDK can vouch for me when I spotted the filly Juxtapose as a maiden winner and offered the owner a ridiculous amount of money for a maiden winner who end up winning the classic and oaks if I’m not mistaken and had the deal gone through MDK was going to trainer…God Bless Stanley Ferreira’s soul – he did extremely well with her

  17. Jay August says:

    PL – that variant should be an automatic calculation – very easy to calculate. Not sure why they have stopped it. Maybe it saved R2 in costs! The handicappers have always used the variant in their discussion on ratings.

    I’ll see if we can get that resuscitated even if only on the NHA results page which has been carrying the variant for each race – see https://www.nhra.co.za/index.php/racing/meeting-results.

    Why is it in SA that we seem to be devolving our racing back to the dark ages?

  18. Jay August says:

    Mr Ed, you need to liaise with Frankie for a weekly or monthly column titled, “Frankie’s Bolters”

    1. Editor says:

      Jay, maybe Frankie keeps all the good stuff to himself 🙂

  19. Frankie says:

    Frankie Zackey…
    Jay unfortunately my services come at a huge price,,however free lessons come around every Christmas day as gift…

  20. donald bradshaw says:

    Thank you Jay for your response and lets see what our friends in the NHRA handicapping department come up with , if anything ?

    I have given both questions some thought from what I must stress is a laymans perspective and will attempt to answer or at least give an opinion on both questions during the day today , if possible !

  21. Jay August says:

    Donald, that is a better approach.

    Attempting an answer and then asking what others think is the cheapest form of and also the most helpful self-learning one can participate in. Other’s criticism or lack of interest is a useful tool for formulating one’s own arguments, approach and thinking in future. Timidity and sensitivity to criticism is not helpful in learning anything.

    An expert, perceived or real, is only someone who has invested more hours than you have in contemplating questions and answers, and a willingness to take the risk of articulating those arguments in public.

    I look forward to reading your thoughts on the two questions.

    PS – Frankie, Xmas is still a long way off!

  22. Frankie says:

    Frankie Zackey…Morning Mr Ed.. tell me did you take the time out to watch the replay ? and if so what is your opinion about the race ?

    1. Editor says:

      Yes, Frankie
      Watched it live too originally
      We phoned Dean Kannemeyer for a thought and mentioned he was your 2021 July bet already.
      He thanks you for your positivity 🙂

      He says Legitimate is quite a scopy, high-spirited horse with plenty of potential but he is backward and immature and has been ‘taking the Mickey’ in work – watching the others sweat while he cruises.

      Dean adds that Keagan de Melo said the horse got stage fright in the stalls and was all at sea even when he got going.
      He has no doubt he would have won if he got away on terms.

      Keagan was impressed that when the penny dropped though he kicked and must have made up ten lengths.
      He points out that he has no idea of the real strength of the field.

      He will probably give him one more KZN run and then he is on the bus down to the Cape for the Summer Season.
      Dean says he is out of a Guineas winner and will go a mile / 2000m in time.
      One for the blackbook then.

  23. Frankie says:

    Frankie Zackey…Mr Ed getting back to your comment you made earlier saying that I keep all the the good stuff to myself,, as a matter of fact that is not the case…maybe if the player just took the time out to start watch racing replays and make constructive notes maybe just maybe racing could become that much easier…I suggest that Jay along with many others take the time out to watch the replay over a few times and make notes,,it’s not only about the 2021 July winner LIGITIMATE,, but the Garth Puller trained Banzai Pipeline that one must take note of,,just as impressive as LIGITMATE looked by making up that unbelievable amount of ground,,so was the Garth Puller trained Banzai Pipeline just as impressive…now all things being equal their are 2 sure winners waiting for the public…and guess what Jay I’ve already giving the pair a MR rating ?…Some advice to the racing public if you the more serious player beit a R10 player or R10,000 player is to watch racing replays along with 2 important tools Computaform and Formgrids and Bobs your Uncle…Next Lesson will be on the 25th Dec ? Stay Safe

    1. Editor says:

      Hi Frankie
      Was being tongue-in-cheek 🙂
      Detected the simmering tensions and this is a friendly platform where we all agree to disagree
      You wear your heart on your sleeve – even in summer!
      Can’t wait to write the story of how you tipped the 2021 VDJ winner before the 2020 race.
      See the comment from Dean. You could be on to something
      Cheers

  24. Frankie says:

    Frankie Zackey…Good Man MR Ed… now do yourself a favour and watch the Garth Puller trained Banzai Pipeline in the same race Draw 9 Blue sleeves and cap…Have a Fantastic day futher Mr Ed

    1. Editor says:

      Cheers Frankie

  25. Frankie says:

    Frankie Zackey…would’nt surprise me Mr Ed… Mr Ed we all good to go…maybe it would be nice to see if Hollywood Bets would lay me a bet now for 2021 the July…and I think in all fairness by asking for 100//1 is a very fair price to lay at this stage,,i would think a realistic price would be 250/ plus…just for the fun of it Mr Ed ask Hollywoodbets if they will lay me 100/1…and if they’ll lay me 500000/5000..I’ll transfer immediately…let’s have some fun

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