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July – What They Would Carry Today

The top 24 in weight order

Cape Derby and WSB Guineas winner Linebacker (Pic – Candiese Lenferna)

The first log for the Gr1 Vodacom Durban July was published on Thursday last week.

Here is the top 24 in weight order if the race was run today.

 

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13 comments on “July – What They Would Carry Today

  1. Cecil Pienaar says:

    And if they were to run today, GtG will win, with a slightly bigger gap to the 2nd horse than a week ago.

  2. Skycam@2016 says:

    No Cecil, at these weights Do It Again will blow them away. Ive looked at so many different scenarios, these Twice Overs improve with age, the first horse to win 3 editions of this race!!!

    Theres no going back…

  3. Cecil Pienaar says:

    We’ve been warned 🤓 Thanks Cameron James ( CJ )

    Won’t that be a thing, 3 out 4 👍🏾

    Don’t forget his warm up at 14.05 on Sunday

  4. Dean Bayley says:

    I would be shocked if Do It Again wins the July even at the weights, – has not won a race since 6th July 2019 – in none of my bets – maybe I’m wrong

  5. Tim Visser says:

    Whilst I agree that gtgl has an undeniable chance at MR 124 and do it again is well weighted, im sticking with LINEBACKER.

  6. Mike Miles says:

    LINEBACKER.

    Race is for second place.

  7. Dev Govender says:

    I agree that, on paper, DIA is well-weighted on the above numbers. I’d love to see him win another July and make history, as I think he is a very under-appreciated horse. Part of this is just down to bad luck as, whatever the medical cause of his loss of form in Cape Town last season, it clearly took the edge off him and his career record now looks like that of a very good horse, as opposed to a great one. Had the 4yo version of DIA carried his form into his 5yo season, I genuinely think that he would have added to his Gr 1 tally and we’d be talking about him as one of the greats. As it is, his third place in last year’s July was, in my view, the finest run of his career, given the weight he was conceding to the first two, his wide draw and the fact that he had had so many setbacks during the course of the season. But his failure to frank that form by winning, say, the Champions Cup or the Met, underlines the difficulty of the old warrior turning it on on a consistent basis.

    Unfortunately, fairy tale endings are not the norm in sport and DIA has lost the finishing kick of his younger days. The weights will undoubtedly be important, as they are every year. but there are too many horses in the race with a superior turn of foot – RB, GTGL, Belgarion and Linebacker. I expect him to compete with honour and stay on gamely, similar to his run in the Met, but not having the acceleration to win it.

    In saying that, fingers crossed that he can prove me wrong – I’d be delighted to humble pie under such circumstances!

    PS: It’s a pity that South Africa does not have a championship WFA Gr 1 race over 2400m, equivalent to the Arc or King George. I think that, over a bit of ground, DIA would still be a threat at the highest level.

  8. Tim Visser says:

    Dev you know what, my thinking was exactly as yours is …do it again has lost gr1 form….look he won today at greyville , hard fought, let’s try to put the run into perspective with the weights that sir Michael carried…..I haven’t calculated yet but my gut says it was too hard fought a win ….cheers

  9. Cameron James says:

    Hi Dev, it may visibly look like he had to battle and win yesterday but that’s what champions do. Looking at all this horse’s victories, he just does enough to win.

    If you looker deeper into his preparation run yesterday, I saw Formgrids race times yesterday and the winning time was 95.17 seconds. I have to ask Mr August about the merits of this finding where it ranks in terms of times, as he most probably will know. Has there been a faster time this year, over the Greyville 1600? Carrying 62kg and probably no where near optimum fitness.

    I briefly looked at the KZN Guineas times and while it may be insignificant was a lot slower for a graded race. Im also unsure about the going on that specific day as well.

    Furthermore I watched the replay of the interview, Justin kept on about there being so much more to come.

    Dev you are spot on about a 2400m race, i said this on this platform two years ago, id love to see DIA in the Dubai Sheema Classic. This horse is looking for more ground.

    Anyways, time will tell. Form is temporary, class permanent. Cecil and myself will always route for this horse.

    Ciao.

  10. dylan barnard says:

    Exciting times.I’m excited to see KOMMETDIEDING vs Linebacker in the Daily News end of the month. Can Cele win the July???idk. It will be interesting to see what Justin does with Belgarion ,he might go straight in to the July. Rainbow Bridge was very impressive when winning the Met . Doesn’t seem like the 2200 will be an issue and his prep went so well. Cameron. Do it Again impressed me as well and like we all know he grows an extra leg on Greyville. I’ll be very surprised if GTGL runs under the first 3. War of Athena seems to be making her come back in the Woolavington end of the month.

  11. Cecil Pienaar says:

    Definitely CJ, if I had to write my book now, only 2 horses would be mentioned as my favorites. Wolf Power and DIA

    DIA was my banker,he could do no more than win. Although I am tipping and betting GtG for the July, if DIA were to win, I won’t mind. Mike Miles’s Linebacker must go into the QT, and my other fancy WOA.

    Aah July time, what a Lekker time of year for racing …

    Another race to look fwd to is The DN2000 👍🏾

  12. Mike Miles says:

    LINEBACKER.

    Cecil, The race is for second place.

  13. Mike Miles says:

    Linebacker Cecil.

    He’ll start as favourite and win as favourite.

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