We have rules, and we have guidelines to support those rules. I searched the rules for ‘handicap’ and found 23 instances. But they amount to no more than that one line – 47.3.2.
Clearly the ‘how’ is not the concern, just the ‘do’.
47.3.2 a handicap, which shall be a RACE in which the weights to be carried by the HORSES are allocated by the handicapper for the purpose of equalising their chances of winning;
Tony Mincione writes in the Sporting Post Mailbag that a while ago the leader of the NHRA declared that the Guidelines are only ‘guidelines’. Well, he is not wrong – otherwise they would be rules!
The Got The Greenlight (GTGL) merit rating adjustment affair revolves around a bunch of incidents.
It all started a year ago with Snaith’s professional pursuit of the Gr1 Vodacom July – a sort of handicap.
After a few attempts in prior years, Justin Snaith finally got a 4yo, in hot form, into the July on the minimum allowed 53kgs. He ran the Belgarion train mostly through backwater Handicap stations and arrived on the July platform with a 4yo rated 119.
Afterwards, Belgarion would run consistently at 130.
But back to GTGL.
He appeared in Durban last year rated 116 to beat Padre Pio (110) and the favourite, Golden Ducat (110) in the Daily News and then went into the Vodacom Durban July with a shiny 3yo rating of 118.
Got The Greenlight (Pic – Candiese Lenferna)
Both 4yo Belgarion (119) and 3yo GTGL (118) found themselves under sufferance to Rainbow Bridge (SA-134) at 60kgs pushing them both to minimum, 53kgs.
And GTGL was worse off, because he should have received an additional 2kgs from the 4yo for his weight-for-age allowance (WFA).
Belgarion won with a 124.
GTGL also got 124, because you give up your WFA if you don’t use it – that’s in the rules.
Nine months later GTGL runs 2-1-1 in three races: the Hawaii 1400m, the Horse Chestnut 1600m and the Champions’ Challenge 2000m. And luckily (I guess) he can never get further away than 0,75 length from any of the 3 year olds in MK’s Pride (117) , Copper Mountain (113) and Second Base (116).
What this means that if you rate GTGL as the moral victor of Begarion in the July, this is a sheep in wolf’s clothing, and the double Gr1 wins confirm it for you.
But circumstances conspire, and the Handicapper is battling to get a clear line on GTGL.
The Premier’s Champions Challenge was a nightmare for the Handicapper and brought no relief from the Horse Chestnut prior, because Summer Pudding (SA-129) and Malmoos’ 125 stuttered and turned the result into mud! They cemented the disappointment by withdrawing from the July forthwith.
I believe the handicappers went into the office, closed the door, and hammered out a solution from the junk that would satisfy us by trying to be ‘fair’ and really present the spirit of the rule.
In hindsight, if only they hadn’t lowered Cirillo, the ever present Gr1 campaigner before. If only they had kept GTGL at 126 or 127. They came out with a 128, and Joey Soma saw a sliver of light under the door and tested the evaluation – as is his right.
Did the appeal board do our current incumbents a favour by fixing an obvious error, or did they fall for the simple safety of thinking handicapping is just arithmetic? Did they fail to read the clever nuance in what our handicappers did in that race in the first place? Yes, I think they did, and what a pity.
I believe our handicappers got it right, that they lived up the rule and that they were fair’.
The task is complicated sometimes. The reactions in the Vodacom Durban July betting showed that in our ‘defining’ handicap, that both the professionals and the amateurs all agreed GTGL was probably more 128 than 124.
The Appeal Board applied a blunt and simple axe to the complex wiring, and suddenly one horse was a great benefactor at the expense of everyone else. The exact opposite of the rule, and the exact opposite of proper handicapping.
And the story continues……
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