Run like the West-wind – first-time blinkers might do the trick for Yard-Arm’s 3-part sister Zephira
There aren’t many opportunities for the best of the classic generation of fillies to prove themselves over some ground. Not one of the five rated MR 100 or more in the 2000m Woolavington Stakes has been further than 1800m. With a full field of fourteen and a couple who like to go handy, the pace should be on from the start. Ability to see out the distance to the full will count. Not a race for sissies, then. Let’s take it from the top.
Along Came Polly had a cracking 2yo season in 2013, and much was expected of her in the Cape earlier this year. Things didn’t go well for her stable during those months, Polly included. Her close third in the Cape Fillies Guineas, following a troublesome passage, was the best she achieved in terms of ratings. On to Gauteng, and the Fillies Guineas there, where she finished well behind Arcetri Pink.
She never lost her trainer’s confidence, though, and rightly so as things turned out. Polly lost the SA Fillies Classic by a whisker to Athina, in a finish of heads and necks – suggesting that perhaps the pace wasn’t a true one throughout. There were no such doubts next time out, in the Gr1 Empress Club Stakes over a mile, where Polly turned the tables on Guineas winner Arcetri Pink, winning by just over a length – a difference of six lengths on their Guineas performance. Polly recorded a career high rating, both with us and the official handicapper.
So Along Came Polly has the form, but what about the distance? She won over a mile as a 2yo, which is a plus. But there is no other reliable form over further. She comes from a staying female line, but her dam won once over 1300 and is also dam of 6-time winning sprinter Blackmalkin (by Black Minnaloushe, who isn’t a sprinter).
Finally, about her sire Judpot’s stamina influence we simply don’t know enough yet. Her trainer seems to have no stamina doubts, though, as Polly was supplemented for the July. If the filly can overcome her draw a good run looks on the cards, but the sting will be in the tail – either way.
In The Fast Lane won the Cape Fillies Guineas and followed up with a good second to Beach Beauty in the Paddock Stakes over 1800m – the only time she’s been beyond a mile. Her dam was a highclass performer, winning up to 2000m. She’s also the dam of champion sprinter Let’s Rock ‘n Roll, but the latter is by Muhtafal, which explains the aptitude for speed. Another of her offspring, by Western Winter, won over 2000m. As a daughter of Jet Master, the real stamina of In The Fast Lane is still under wraps, and for her, too, this race will tell. She’s in-form, has a good draw.
Arcetri Pink won the Gauteng Fillies Guineas, was less than a length (in fourth) behind Athina in the Fillies Classic, and a length second to Along Came Polly in the Empress Club. Her KZN debut was an anti-climax – she took on the colts in the Guineas, but never got her act together to finish second-last, beaten fifteen lengths. Of course, that was nothing like her normal form, and a much better effort is expected here.
She’s a daughter of Rock Of Gibraltar out of an unraced Galileo mare, from a family of sprint/miler speed. If Galileo has put the stamina in she’ll be OK, else a mile may be her best. She’s well drawn, but tends to come from off the pace.
Lanner Falcon was beaten a length by In The Fast Lane in the Cape Fillies Guineas, didn’t show in the Paddock Stakes (1800m), ran close to her rating in the Majorca (1600m). She recorded her career best rating after coming to KZN, with a close third to Jet Belle over 1200m at Clairwood. She was slow away the next time, in the Fillies Guineas, finishing fourth – half a length behind In The Fast Lane, so more or less reproducing her Cape Fillies Guineas form with the latter.
That means that depending on stamina, Lanner Falcon should be where In The Fast Lane finishes in the Woolavington. Will she get 2000m? She’s by speedy Trippi out of an American mare, who produced a 2400m winner by Dynaformer and a good miler by Elusive Quality. Once again, the jury is still out on the ability for Lanner Falcon to get the distance.
On to Athina, who came with a flying late run to win the SA Fillies Classic (1800m) from Along Came Polly, following a 4-length fourth in the Fillies Guineas behind Arcetri Pink. It came as a surprise that she bypassed the Oaks, and instead reappeared in the KZN Fillies Guineas, where she never showed. On evidence so far it’s hard to know what to make of her, even less so in terms of stamina.
A daughter of Fort Wood, she is a July-entry. Her dam had a single 1200m win (from only 4 starts) and is half sister to Heir Apparent, Quickwood and Elderberry – all by Fort Wood and mostly best over a mile or less. Put all that in the hat and chances are she too may be best around a mile. The race will tell.
SA Oaks winner Ash Cloud has no stamina question, coming as she does from a family of stayers. Her Oaks win was her best performance to date in terms of ratings. She won that race at long odds and the value of the form is hard to assess.
Ash Cloud had been four lengths behind Athina in the SA Fillies Classic the time before her Oaks win. She seems likely to race handy (as she usually does), more so here to make her superior stamina count. If her Oaks effort was true in terms of ratings, she’ll have a first-class chance here. Ash Cloud was supplemented for the July following her Oaks win.
Zephira won a handicap over 2200m at Turffontein in February, after which she took on the best in the SA Fillies Classic. She finished just a length off Athina, recording a career best rating, having started at 7/2, a shade shorter than her Guineas winning stable companion Arcetri Pink at 11/2. Zephira subsequently was odds-on to win the SA Oaks, but never got a blow in and finished seven lengths behind Ash Cloud.
She is tried with blinkers this time, which muddles the waters further. If the blinkers do the trick, and the previous betting support was a reflection of her true ability, this 3-part sister to champion Yard-Arm might well be Western Winter’s next Gr1 winner.
Zacharias is winner of her last four starts, upping her rating at each of them. She’d been entered for the KZN Fillies Guineas, but as reserve runner didn’t make the cut. That race was won by her stable companion Maybe Yes, who isn’t in the line-up this time, possibly because of stamina limitations.
Zacharias will have to pull out more again if she is to have a chance here. Her dam is half sister to a host of winners up to 1400m, from a mostly speedy family. Zacharias has won up to 1800m, also the right distance for her sire Lundy’s Liability.
Charles Laird and Anton Marcus team up with Admiral’s Eye, who should have no problem with the distance here. She wasn’t far off the best as a 2yo, witness her close third to Along Came Polly in the Gr1 Thekwini over a mile. She has been kept on the go as a 3yo, winning twice from nine outings.
She showed herself somewhat behind the winners in the SA Fillies Classic and KZN Guineas, but tries 2000m for the first time now. That looks a smart move, even if she could still be found wanting in terms of ability against the best. She usually races handy or upfront, and it wouldn’t be the first time for Marcus to outfox his opponents riding that way.
Mohave Princess is another without stamina limitations. She finished second to Ash Cloud in the Oaks, and in terms of ratings has been mostly consistent throughout the Cape and Gauteng season. Those ratings suggest that she’s a bit off the best of her generation.
Omaticaya has yet to race beyond a mile. As a daughter of Silvano she might well improve on her current rating over this 2000m – her dam, who is by Jet Master out of NZ-bred mare who won over 2400m, was not tried beyond a mile. Red Flame, winner of two of her four starts to date, scored in good style over 1800m last time out, at short odds. She takes on much stronger opposition here. How she’ll cope is anyone’s guess. Touch The Sky is a third contender from the Woodruff stable.
She produced her best effort last time out in the SA oaks, when fourth, some five lengths behind Ash Cloud after a slow start. She’ll have to improve dramatically to feature. Mike de Kock is represented by Square Dance, an imported filly who is half a year behind the others in age (she was born in March).
She’s improving with every start, and won nicely over a mile last time, for a career best rating. Square Dance had been fifth in the SA Oaks the time before, when never quite getting into the race. Her dam Front House finished third in the Woolavington in her days (she also was behind in age, born in May) before export.
The filly could be anything in terms of ability, but possibly more time may be needed to bring out the best. Of the three reserve runners Goldie Coast makes most appeal. She finished some four length behind the winner in the KZN Fillies Guineas last time, the first time she tried a mile. She’ll have to improve further to have chance to feature here.
In summary, hopes of a true run race, where stamina will be the deciding factor in the closing stages. There are many question marks among the best rated contenders, which persuades us to side with first-time blinkered Zephira to run like the wind. After that? Probably best to stick with the first four carded runners because of their ratings, but convincingly? Not quite.
