The speedy Jimmi Choo tops our ratings in a very open contest
The Leon Erasmus trained Jimmi Choo started his career with a bang as a superfast 2yo stakes winner. Johan Botha’s Bezrin gelding also won early in his 3yo season but things have not exactly gone swimmingly for him since. A flicker of a revival at his last start suggests that he is edging back to his best again and he may be the value on the Vaal inside track on Tuesday.
In a tough little race to crack, historical analysis may be the way to go, with many of the runners having gone through lean patches in recent times. And, while backing favourites may work for the bigger players, the ordinary punter remains on an eternal quest for value.
Top Rated
Jimmi Choo’s recent form is less impressive than a standard grade pass in woodwork, but on our analysis he falls into the value category.
He tops our ratings in the final leg of the jackpot, an MR 91 Divided Handicap, and could be ready to bounce back to best, if running sound.
And why not consider doing your form study and assessment before being influenced by an external factor like the betting, for instance?
After all, it stands to reason that unduly short favourites, or even double figure odds, can have their own impact on the way the individual structures bets.
Bargain Blitz
Once described by regular pilot Sherman Brown as ‘too fast for his own good’, the R50,000 2012 KZN Yearling Sale buy is out of the Northfields mare Ambleside, who raced just twice in Zimbabwe and never won a race.
The speedster, cleverly named on a variation of a British high fashion house that produces luxury shoes and handbags, won the Listed Storm Bird Stakes as a 2yo and was also runner up in the Listed Protea Stakes.
That is not to mention a fair fourth behind Willow Magic in the 2013 Gr1 SA Nursery. Disqualified once, and recurring unsoundness, have plagued his 3yo season where he has tumbled from a career high MR of 109 down to 90.
At his last start at the end of March, he ran a length fifth (giving 2kgs) behind Louis Goosen’s fast improving Trip Tease, who has won twice since. If turning up sound on Tuesday, Jimmi could run them off their feet.
Outside Chance
Leon Erasmus has another two in the race, and interestingly Nice Stride also features near the top of our ratings. The son of Imperial Stride gets the 4kg claim of apprentice Ryan Munger and his recent form (on the sand) is not very impressive.
That said, he is another who could bounce back. Piere Strydom rides Dennis The Menace (another son of Bezrin) again. He ran 4,50 lengths behind Trip Tease on the sand at his last outing in receipt of a kilo from the Goosen flyer.
The collateral may well be marginal, but Jimmi could hold him on that. Gunter Wrogemann rides De Var Hyt for Louis Goosen. The seven time course and distance winner as battled to get into the money recently, despite showing plenty of early toe.
Smart Filly
Mike De Kock’s smart Western Winter filly Tayba can run on her day and produced a cracking effort when a smart third behind stablemate Honorine in the Gr2 Camellia Stakes on Champions Day.
That was a great return effort since a dismal showing in the Emerald Cup when found to be not striding out. She carries a big weight but has certainly earned it.
Curved Ball
Brett Warren’s Abbotsbury is a hardknocking 7yo who is quite consistent but may need 200m further to produce a winning effort. Romeo Francis throws a curved ball into the mix with the consistent Flag Of France.
The 4yo shed his maiden over 1200m at the Vaal but has never been tried over 1000m. While he is a smart six time winner, we can only deduce that Strydom would have ridden him if he felt he was capable of beating Dennis The Menace.
Go Close
It is a very open race, with chances to many. Puns aside, we are not suggesting Jimmi Choo is a shoe in. But he should go close at best!
