Elbert Steyn confirmed again on Sunday that the very smart 3yo Garrix, a narrow winner of the Gr3 Legal Eagle Stakes, will ‘definitely not’ be travelling to Durban for the Champions Season.
That was confirmed in an article published by the Sporting Post last week.
Reader John Mynhardt writes in the Sporting Post Mailbag that as a person who loves racing from all aspects, he feels obligated to write after working through the nominations for the 2025 Hollywoodbets Durban July.
John writes that after some late-night studying, he came to the conclusion that he could put together a quartet of horses that could most probably beat the majority of the 61 nominations.
I can’t remember a time over the past 40 years I would have been able to do the same. I did take some factors into consideration when compiling this list.
This includes firstly the fact that the Hollywoodbets Durban July is a Handicap of sorts and as such weights play a mayor role in the outcome of the race.
Secondly, I only looked at horses with form over distance.
I have a couple of definitions: Short distance (1000 – 1200m), middle distance (1400 – 1600m ), distance ( 1800 – 2450m ), long distance ( 2450 -3200m ). The July is within the distance parameter.
Then horses improving (3YO).Horses that are settled (4YO and on ).Current form and buildup.
When taking the above into consideration I immediately came up with at least two improving horses and two settled horses which, on most days, beat home the nominations in those categories amongst the 61 nominations.
I also believe the 3YO crop is truly decent given the fact the L’Ormarins Kings Plate and Cape Town Met was won by 3YO’s.
Garrix was a gutsy winner of the Gr3 Legal Eagle Stakes on Sunday (Pic – Chase Liebenberg)
Firstly, I’m a big fan of GARRIX which I make no secret about.
I believe this horse could take up the first spot on most days in this Hollywoodbets Durban July.
On collateral form at even weights he has beaten all of WILD INTENT, SAIL THE SEAS, REGULATION, ZEITZ, LA PULGA and then at weight turnaround there should be nothing to choose between him and EIGHT ON EIGHTEEN ( currently favourite @ 6/1 ).
GARRIX will also climb up the MR ratings in the next two months making him sure to get in. All of these runs over middle distance and distance races. He is also clearly a horse in form and currently on the up.
I always look at certain races which can be used as an indicator of future stardom. For me the Cape Derby is one such a race. In years gone past horses like SEE IT AGAIN (1st) , CHARLES DICKENS(2nd), POMP AND POWER(1st), DOUBLE SUPERLATIVE(3rd), LINEBACKER(1st), RASCALLION(2nd), GOLDEN DUCAT(1st) have all proven this race to produce high quality horses to follow.
In 2024 the honour roll was GREEN WITH ENVY(1st), BEACH BOMB(2nd), ORIENTAL CHARM(3rd). And we all know what ORIENTAL CHARM did about 5 months later.
This year the top 5 finishers have been nominated for the July, except the runner which placed 3rd (the same as ORIENTAL CHARM, DOUBLE SUPERLITIVE). That runner being GARRIX.
I also believe his running style will be suited to Hollywoodbets Greyville as he is able to run from the back like in the Politician Stakes where he was drawn very wide or he can run from midfield as in the VARIETY CLUB STAKES from draw 3 – where he also easily beat another July nomination MAGIC VERSE by more than 8L. I also believe he’ll be best over distance and the 2200m will suit him down to the ground.
But then some will argue he going to attempt to sweet the Winter Series, but even so. He can easily attempt that and then still run in the July. And let’s be honest. The Winter Series vs the Hollywoodbets Durban July. Only one winner there.
Given all the reasons above he would have been my first choice for the 2025 renewal of Africa’s Greatest race.
Secondly SOLAR SAIL.
This horse has obviously been crying out for distance races. His form over distances races is impressive. Two runs. One easy victory and then a fantastic very close 3rd in the SA Derby. He is surely also a horse that will love Hollywoodbets Greyville with his running style. He is also a horse that is currently on the improve and at weight turnaround there should be nothing to choose between him and LEGEND OF AUTHUR (currently 8/1) .
Given all the reasons above he would have been my 2nd choice for the 2025 Hollywoodbets Durban July, but he is also not nominated?
Then moving on to the settled horses.
Piet Botha’s Montien (Pic – Chase Liebenberg)
Thirdly MONTIEN.
Currently he is the highest rated distance horse in the country with an MR of 129. This horse ran within 1L of the winner and runner up in the MET. And that from draw 15. And those 2 horses are currently the joint favourites for the Hollywoodbets Durban July. MONTIEN is extremely consistent and should also be suited to Hollywoodbets Greyville. I can’t remember when last the highest rated distance horses was not even nominated for the Hollywoodbets Durban July. If someone can recall, please let me know.
Given all the reasons above he would have been my 3rd choice, but he is not nominated ?
And then for fourth I would consider an older horse who would have a low weight in but must be suited to the distance. And the horse that immediately comes to mind is BILLY BOWLEGS.
Billy Bowlegs in his previous silks – he is now based in the Cape (Pic – JC Photos)
Billy was 2nd as a young 3YO in SA Derby. And has dropped a lot in the ratings after a long time of the track.
The initial comeback runs have all been way too short for this horse but every time he starts to get going in the latter stages. Surely is crying out to go back over distance (let’s say 2200m?) And off a light weight (53kg) in the July he would have a massive shout.
Given all the reasons above he would have been my 4th choice for the 2025 Hollywoodbets Durban July, but he is not nominated?
So, there we have it.
I believe this quartet can beat the 61 nominations.
I never thought in my lifetime that I will be able to create a list as above.
The fact that I could come up with these four horses within ten minutes after the nominations was published proves the point again.
I believe we will thus not have the best handicap field for this year’s Hollywoodbets Durban July. The punter and the public would like to see the 18 best handicap horses across the finish line almost as one. Or rather we should demand it.
Racing is slowly dying in South Africa and all kinds of positive sentiments on TV does not change this.
The racecourses are empty week in and week out when compared to the glory days.
The pools are terrible compared in real terms to the glory days. The stakes are also way below where it should be compared to the glory days and the rest of the world.
All the people I personally know who still love the sport and follow it week in and week out are from a previous generation. Thus, this crowds just become smaller and smaller over time.
The Hollywoodbets Durban July jockey class of 2024 (Pic – Candiese Lenferna)
I believe that the majority of the next generation do not even know when the July will be run, or where Hollywoodbets Greyville is, or who was the winner last year.
Ask a couple of the young generation next time you get an opportunity, and it will prove my point. Totally different to when I was young.
My friends and I knew all the jockeys, trainers, courses and major races off the back of our hands. Not enough is being done to grow racing among the younger generation but to not have the best fields competing against each other in the spectacle that is the Hollywoodbets Durban July is surely not going to help at all.
So, there is my rant.
Please remember I write this because I love racing and don’t want to see it die a slow death.
Ed – John Mynhardt’s letter was written prior to the past weekend’s racing.
The Hollywoodbets Durban July timeline:
- First declarations close at 11h00 on Monday, 12 May.
- First supplementary entries close at 11h00 on Tuesday, 13 May
- Second declarations close at 11h00 on Monday, 9 June
- Final supplementary entries close at 11h00 on Tuesday, 17 June, on which date the weights will be published.
- Final field and draw announcement will take place on Tuesday, 24 June.
- A final field of 20 horses will be carded (18 + 2 Reserves)
