The Hollywoodbets Durban July weights will be of interest this year as it will bring the question of relativity into it.
Gold Circle reports that some old timers will no doubt repeat what has been said just about every season for the last dozen years, “A three-year-old can’t carry that weight.”
Hollywoodbets Durban July countdown – a case could be made for Selukwe (Pic – Candiese Lenferna)
They will be referring to Eight On Eighteen having to carry 57kg, which would be the highest weight a three-year-old would have ever carried to victory in the iconic race.
However, Eight On Eighteen will be the best weighted runner in the field if speaking relatively.
According to the merit ratings Eight On Eighteen will be 2kg well in.
This is due to the clause in the Hollywoodbets Durban July conditions that states a three-year-old cannot carry more than 57kg.
In a true handicap, as it stands with See It Again being the topweight carrying 60kg off a 127 merit rating, Eight On Eighteen would have to carry 59kg.
To illustrate how well he is in as things stand, he will only have to give Okavango 2,5kg and Native Ruler 3kg, despite having beaten them by 4,05 and 4,30 lengths respectively on Saturday while being ridden hands and heels and being eased up before the line.
Furthermore, he will be 1kg better off with weight for age than See It Again. In a weight for age race at that time of year over that distance he would receive 2kg from an older horse, but he will receive 3kg from See It Again.
His stablemate Sail The Seas, if he runs, will be the second best in at the weights according to official merit ratings. He will also carry 57kg and would have to carry 58kg off his 127 merit rating had it been a true handicap. He will only be 1kg out at the weights with Eight On Eighteen.
However, some will look at the weights completely differently.
For example a case could be made for Selukwe being up with Eight On Eighteen on paper despite him having only a 111 merit rating and officially being 2kg under sufferance and 4kg out at the weights with Eight On Eighteen.
Selukwe gave Okavango 2kg and a 3,20 length beating in the WSB Gr3 1900.
He will now be receiving half-a-kilogram from Okavango.
As a three-year-old, Okavango would have improved by 1kg since the WSB 1900, if the weight for age scale is used as the measure.
So it could be said he will actually only be 1,5kg worse off from the WSB 1900 as opposed to 2,5kg.
However, that should still see him beating Okavango by no less than five lengths on paper, taking into account that a length over 2200m is viewed as being worth 1,7 pounds (or half-kilograms).
Eight On Eighteen, on paper after their last meeting, should beat Okavango by only 1,15 lengths, although he did win easing up so an extra length can probably be added to that.
Even if that extra length is added that still has Selukwe beating Eight On Eighteen by 2,85 lengths on the maths of this isolated bit of form comparison.
However, the handicapping purists would also take latent ability into account and Okavango’s performance in the Daily News 2000, which was run in an exceptional time, was clearly a better performance than his performance in the 1900, where it didn’t pan out well for him.
On the other hand Selukwe had to jump from the second widest draw in the 1900 and came from right near the back and was behind Okavango entering the straight. How well did that race pan out for him, even if he won and surely he would also have appreciated the good pace of the Daily News 2000.
A few WSB Met runners will also be interesting on paper, with Pacaya being a good example.
He was giving Eight On Eighteen 6kg in the Met and was beaten 1,75 lengths.
He will now be receiving 1,5kg from Eight On Eighteen, which makes him 7,5kg better off.
The weight for age scale says Eight On Eighteen should have improved 4,5kg from the Met by July day.
However, that would still put Pacaya at 3kg better off so on this paper calculation Pacaya beats Eight On Eighteen by 1,75 lengths.
However, Eight On Eighteen has created the impression he has improved at a faster rate than the weight for age scale predicts he should.
He was also said to have needed the Daily News outing and any improvement on that magnificent performance is going to see him being hard to beat, although luck in running does usually play a part in the July too!
