Change Of Fortune. The highly vaunted Divine Jet gets his chance to chalk up a Gr1 win on Saturday
The R1 million Betting World Gr1 Cape Flying Championship is the blue riband of the Cape’s summer of speed. The honour roll of the race speaks of champions and many have gone on to be household names and sires. Whether such an equine treasure is buried in the 2014 vintage remains to be seen. What we do know though is that whoever gets to lift the trophy will know that they have been in a bruising battle of wits and raw ability.
The purists will be raising their glasses of bubbly in glee at Kenilworth on Saturday as the weight for age contests inevitably tilt the odds in favour of the best horses. That theory may be slightly flawed though as we consider a field of thirteen that on paper is as good as anything we have seen, yet appear to have more questions than answers against their names in recent times.
Tightrope
The contrast of athletic ability versus mortal fragility is the spectrum of possibility that spans the tightrope that racing enthusiasts and punters will be walking when considering options in a wide open race. If any of them run to their best ability, they could win. If their aches and pains and character flaws come into play, then the difference between glory and defeat could be a split second.
The unknown factor of luck at the break was amply demonstrated in a forgettable start to the Gr2 Betting World Merchants in November, where high jinx and circus antics led to lengthy delays and the good ‘kids’ being punished as it were, for the sake of the delinquents.
Change Of Fortune
One horse that has had no luck on his side is the talented entire Divine Jet, rated by his trainer as the best Gr1 horse he has trained, not to win a Gr1 yet. Divine Jet ran a flying close up third in the Merchants behind Tevez after going to sleep in the stalls. He was then crossed by Diadem winner Welwitschia at the start of that sprint, and fell back before plodding into fourth.
Last time out, he was fitted with blinkers and slightly tardy out of the gates, before powering on for a 1,25 length second to Barbosa. He is 3,5kgs better off with the Drier runner here and retains the blinkers. Divine Jet has his problems but has never been fitter than he is at the moment.
His stablemate Cape Royal is a course and distance specialist and the highest rated male in the race. He has unfortunately developed head issues at the starting stalls and returns from a 31 week rest. He looks the Kannemeyer second stringer by a mile.
Speed Queen
The highest rated runner in the race is Duncan Howells’ flying Var filly, Via Africa. This speed machine is a proven winner of 7 of her 12 starts, and could clean the boys up. Duncan left her in the Cape following her recovery from a lung infection on the recommendation of Eric Sands, with whom she is based. She is being looked after by Sands and Alex Howells.
“We picked up that all was not well with her when we looked at her finishes behind fillies that she had previously beaten. Her third in the Gr2 Southern Cross Stakes was just not her run, and she was patently not herself,” he said.
“This has not been an ideal prep by any means but she put up a terrific gallop over 900m on the grass last Thursday and we would never run her if we didn’t feel she wasn’t back to health. She has picked up condition and is looking like her old self again. Eric and Alex have done a great job in nursing her back but the problem is that with a lung infection, one never really knows what to expect.”
Ray Of Hope
Prodigal Son. The brilliant Red Ray could reinstate his reputation on Saturday
Joey Ramsden’s brilliant prodigal son Red Ray has enjoyed a summer of mixed fortunes. Plans to settle him and try and let him run on in the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate flopped miserably and he was never a threat when finishing in the lower midfield to Capetown Noir. He now tries the 1000m for the first time in his career and is extremely difficult to assess. This in the light of the fact that we expected to see the best of his ability when he was escalated to racing around the turn.
Happy Forever could have the distinction of the first horse to be ridden by his owner to win the Cape Flying Championship. The son of Var has won 4 races but is held by both Cap Alright and Barbosa and could find this league tough.
Snaith Duo
Justin Snaith saddles a solid Captain Al coupling (there are five Captains in the field!) of the evergreen Cap Alright and the smart 4yo filly Victorian Secret. Cap Alright is always worthy of a few rand each way. He is drawn at 1 and Richard Fourie knows him very well. He won the Listed Southeaster Sprint at his penultimate start over the 1100m when a genius ride from Piere Strydom saw him home in a tight finish to beat Casual Var.
Victorian Secret won the Listed Laisserfaire Stakes at end of December giving away a kilo and beating Saturday’s smart Gr2 Sceptre Stakes winner Reflective Image.
If we draw parallels with Reflective Image and the fact that she beat Welwitschia by 2,70 lengths at level weights on Saturday, and then the fact that Welwitschia received 2,5 kgs from Divine Jet when beating him 2,15 lengths in the Diadem, then the whole picture muddies and we realise that the options and permutations are as diverse as we choose them to be. Victorian Secret must have a place chance at best
Bass Quartet
The Newbury Racing trained Muscatt heads the Bass quartet and has won two of his last three starts over the course and distance. While he is technically completely out at the weights, he is a brilliantly fast sprinter who will be fitter than he was when making a winning comeback on New Year’s Day after a year plus break. Bernard Fayd’herbe will give him every chance and he could make a mockery of his 88 rating. Tevez won the Betting World Merchants but after running a fair third behind Cap Alright (who holds him here) in the Southeaster Sprint, he ran a flat race in the Diadem.
Captain’s Secret has not won in ages and even though he did run a fair fifth in the Diadem last month, he looks hard pressed to produce the jets required in a race of this nature. Zambezi Torrent ran on well behind the unbeaten Viva Le Var last time and is a good 3yo. He could be caught short on pace here and could have an uphill battle at the weights against the proven 1000m specialists.
Strong Combo
The combination of Dennis Drier and Sean Cormack have always got to be taken into account. They come to battle with Barbosa, who is a lightly raced winner of 4 of his ten starts. The son of Captain Al easily accounted for Muscatt last time and is now 1,5 kgs worse off with the Bass challenger. That was Barbosa’s first outing in seven months and he is either going to be fitter here, or suffer the second run syndrome.
Yvette Bremner’s Copper Parade has been well travelled of late, with three different provinces spanning his last five runs. He now finds himself amongst the Gr1 fast set in the Cape but proved that he can still pace it with the quickest when winning the Golden Loom Handicap at Turffontein in November.
Oscar Winner
The stage is set. But the form is muddling and the players are all capable of an Oscar winning performance. Soundness and luck in running will contribute to the outcome. Divine Jet is a narrow first choice to beat Muscatt with Red Ray and Via Africa fighting over the minor spoils.
