One Fine Day, the only filly in the line-up for the Golden Horseshoe, should give the colts a run for their money
Just when you thought that the boys would finally have things to themselves, Mike de Kock takes a leaf out of Sean Tarry’s book and brings along 2yo filly One Fine Day. Anything to avoid Carry On Alice, it seems. Pure musical chairs.
Favourites don’t have a great record in this race. Fearless and Argonaut obliged in the last decade, but short-priced Warm White Night and Kavanagh found their waterloo. There have been proper upsets, too. Last year, Forest Indigo (29/1) from Kochka (18/1), before that Copper Parade (18/1), Forest Path (12/1), Fighting Warrior (11/1). There are, it seems, no rules for this race.
That said, a filly hasn’t won this race before, probably because they don’t take part in it. That could well change. One Fine Day, top rated, has a massive 2.5kg sex allowance. Following a second on debut and an easy win second time out in April, both at short odds, she was headed for feature company later that month. She cast herself in the box, though, and it wasn’t until late May that she appeared again, in the Allan Robertson. Whereas she set the pace on her first two starts, she raced off them in this Gr1 feature, had a troublesome passage, but ran on for third behind winning stable companion Alboran Sea. On evidence of that effort she will probably be able to improve on her current rating. There’s some stamina on her dam’s side, so the distance should not be a problem. This could well be her day.
Mike de Kock has a strong hand
One Fine Day’s trainer De Kock has three other entries, of which Razed In Black is third reserve and seems unlikely to get a run. The others are Anjaal and Jayyed. Australian import Anjaal ran second on debut, then finished fifth in the Gold Medallion, running on, but five lengths behind winner Guiness. He made amends in the middle of June, when odds-on for a maiden mile at Clairwood, which didn’t take much winning. Anjaal probably is better than rated, but he has a bhit to find against Guiness. Jayyed could be a better prospect. He made his debut over 1450m at Clairwood in June, when second to MLjet, after missing the break but nevertheless racing handy. He (as well as the winner) made a good impression against a decent field, and with normal second-run improvement he could well take a hand in the finish.
Likely race-favourite Guiness is unbeaten in two starts, on the second occasion beating SA Nursery winner Carry On Alice in the Gold Medallion with Marcus in the saddle. The son of freshman sire Seventh Rock showed good pace at both his wins, and with Marcus taking the reins again similar tactics are on the cards, even though he’s drawn quite wide. Marcus has dealt with such a scenario before! Seeing out the distance in a true run race might be an issue, though. His dam won once over 1200m (from 5 starts), is half sister to 4 sprinters, and also produced November Rain, an 8-time winning sprinter by July-winner Greys Inn. That suggests the pedigree is about speed, and that Marcus may have to employ hold-up-in-front tactics to get him home. The question is, will the others let him?
Harry Lime fluffed his lines in the Gold Medallion, some six lengths behind Guiness. That wasn’t his form, though, as he had produced higher ratings at his previous two starts, both good wins. Chances are he will be better than rated, and better than his run behind Guiness suggests. Stamina could be an issue – he’s by Var out of a mare who won over 1200m – but there is some miler stamina in the female line. The race will tell.
Tsogo Sun Medallion winner Guiness lools likely to jump as favourite
Harry’s Son was beaten five lengths by Harry Lime when the latter made his winning KZN-debut, but didn’t have a clear passage. He turned the tables in the Gold Medallion, when 3 lengths third behind Guiness and 3 lengths in front of Harry Lime. Harry’s Son is Australian-bred and on pedigree should have no problem with the extra, while with Harry Lime there’s no such certainty. Strydom gets the ride on Harry’s Son, from a handy draw.
Easy Lover won his second start by a wide margin at very short odds, then went into feature company. He missed the break when taking on Harry Lime and Harry’s Son over 1200m at Scottsville, finishing six lengths off comfortable winner Harry Lime and one behind Harry’s Son. Easy Lover followed up with a close second to Forries Waltz over 1450m at Clairwood early in June, producing a career-best rating. On that evidence he has a bit to find in this field.
Amazing Strike falls in the same category. A winner third time out, he followed up with a fifth place behind Forries Waltz and Easy Lover, beaten 2 lengths. He’ll probably finish close to Easy Lover again. On pedigree Amazing Strike should appreciate much more ground than this.
Nisa’s Machine finished third to Forries Waltz and Easy Lover (beaten a length), then was odds-on for his next start, where he was convincingly beaten in to third by first-timers MLjet and Jayyed. That suggests Jayyed will have his measure again, probably by a wider margin.
Isphan went wrong in the Gold Medallion, and wasn’t persevered with, fifteen lengths off winner Guiness. He reappeared three weeks later at Turffontein, over 1400m, showing pace but eventually running some way below his previous best rating. It’s hard to know what to expect, other than that he has won over 1450m in March, and the distance shouldn’t be a problem.
His stable companion Mighty Manzi is winner of his only start, early in June, where he was slow away, but ran on well to win going away, at long odds. There’s no way telling how he’ll fare here.
Dean Kannemeyer trains Afrikaburn
Afrikaburn is unbeaten in two starts. Very slow away on debut, over 1400m at Greyville, he was hanging when running on from behind, to win going away. His second start was over 1200m at Scottsville, where he again was slow away. Indications are that he simply lacked experience and could be much better than rated when he gets his act together. Whether that time has come in this race hard to say, but he’s certainly not one to ignore.
Captain Clipper is another one with apparent potential. Glowingly talked about by his trainer following a narrow debut win at the Vaal, he took on the best three weeks later in the Gold Medallion. Starting at very long odds, he was never in the hunt, beaten over six lengths by Guiness. He reappeared three weeks later over 1400m at Turffontein, to again win, be it narrowly. Just how good he is, or isn’t, who knows – trainer Tarry probably wouldn’t run him again in Gr1 company if there wasn’t good promise.
In summary, a full field of fourteen and the hope this will not deteriorate in a false run race where the pace is dictated by the front runner. On ratings this looks a contest between One Fine Day and Guiness, our preference going to the filly. Of the likely improvers in the line-up it is Jayyed, Afrikaburn and Captain Clipper who look the most interesting.
