Can Alice Carry On Again? (Khumalo Stood Down)

Is she a shoe-in for Gr1 Golden Slipper at Greyville on Saturday?

Carry On Alice wins the Gr1 SA Nursery at Turffontein on 2014-04-26

SA Nursery winner Carry On Alice may have been unlucky to lose her unbeaten record in the Gold Medallion last time out. Now back against her own sex, she looks set to regain her winning ways

It’s a draw between favourites winning and long priced fillies coming home in the last ten years of Golden Slippers. You’d expect, perhaps, the draw to be in issue in this 1400m race, with the start on the bend. Past resuts show no evidence of anything – favourites come from anywhere and so do the other winners. That said, this year the new polytrack has taken up some of the turf track, making for a bit wider bend. We’ll have to see how it pans out.

The official handicapper is giving nothing away, either. There aren’t any ratings yet, and horses have been listed alphabetically (bar the three reserves). That’s a pity, as this is a fascinating contest. Carry On Alice lost her unbeaten record in the Gold Medallion last time out, taking on the colts. That way she avoided a clash with Majmu, favourite for the Allan Robertson the same day. Majmu disappointed, but her stable companion Alboran Sea won instead, making a big impression. Now finally we have Carry On Alice taking on her own sex. And it’s still Tarry vs. De Kock, with a bunch of challengers thrown in.

Alboran Sea won the Gr1 Allan Robertson and should appreciate the extra

Alboran Sea won the Gr1 Allan Robertson and should appreciate the extra

Alboran Sea has run twice, following a maiden win with a Gr1 victory. She beat Rich Girl convincingly, although her starting price (12/1 from 25/1) hadn’t suggested she could beat her stable companion and race favourite Majmu. The slightly longer distance should not be a problem – there plenty of stamina in her female line, and this daughter of Rock Of Gibraltar is full sister to Singapore Derby winner Trafalgar Legacy. She’s drawn on the paint, which will assist in her normal style of racing handy. Yeni rode Alboran Sea at both her wins and retains the ride, leaving two stable companions to Delpech and Strydom.

Delpech is on Pine Princess, already proven over the distance, and with 3 wins and second from four starts. Her one defeat shows up in our ratings as her best effort. But she raced green that time, racing from off the pace – this unlike her wins where she’d been handy each time. That suggests she might be better than rated. Her wide draw (13 at least, without reserve runners) gives some concern, though, if she wants to get handy again.

Third stable companion Love To Sail is a winner of her only start, up the straight at Turffontein early in June. She started at 22/10 (from 7/2) that day, missed the break, but ran on well to win by two. The longer distance should be to her liking, and she has a nice draw at 5. She’s bound to improve on the rating of her debut-run, but there’s no telling how competitive she will be.

Carry On Alice was very narrowly beaten against the colts in the Gold Medallion last time, where she may have been unlucky in the running. Our ratings suggest the same, as it was some below her SA Nursery rating, where she beat Banadeer – the latter a disappointing finisher in the Gold Medallion, three lengths further behind Alice than he’d been in the Nursery. This is the filly’s first try beyond sprints. Her highclass dam Carry On Katie (MR 100) won up to 1400, so there’s a chance this today’s distance is about the limit of her stamina. Or maybe not, if she takes after her sire Captain Al. If she reproduces her Nursery form she should be right there, assuming her draw at 11 doesn’t hamper her.

Rich Girl has two wins (both at very short odds) and two seconds from four starts, of which her second to Alboran Sea in the Allan Robertson was the highlight. Like Alboran Sea she is an Australian-bred daughter of Rock of Gibraltar. There is a lot of speed in the female line, so suitability to this 1400m is not a given. Marcus has the ride, as he had at three of her four starts. To overcome her draw (at 9) will require some early effort.

Flame Cat is a bit of a mystery. She has three good runs against Majmu and Carry On Alice to her credit, but when t counted in the SA Nursery and Allan Robertson she let the side down, running below form. She appears to have a speed pedigree, so today may not be her day either. Her style of running is handy or upfront, which is another concern.

Rosier finished a well-beaten fourth in the Allan Robertson, losing her unbeaten record of 3 wins in the Cape, PE and KZN. She was slow away in that last feature race, which sealed her fate early. She was running on, though, and not all that much below her best rating. If she gets the trip, she has a chance to make the frame – although winning looks out of the question.

Balkan wins at Clairwood on 14-04-08

Balkan disappointed in the Allan Robertson

Another to disappoint in the Allan Robertson was Balkan, who came into that race at short odds (19/10 from 9/2), following two large-margin wins at odds-on. She set the pace, as she’d done at all of her previous starts, and simply may have gone too fast. The extra 200m should be to her advantage given her pedigree background, but she will have to settle. Well drawn at 4, she’s certainly one to keep an eye on.

Just Lucky won on debut at odds-on, then moved into feature company. The first try was disappointing, but her most recent effort was a very close third in the Tibouchina Stakes, trying 1450m. She was running on well from off the pace that time, and will probably have some improvement to come – it will have to be more than a bit, though, to feature here. If held up again, her wide draw is less of a concern.

Her stable companion Littleblacknumber likes to race handy, and has good sprint form to her credit. She ran a close second to Pine Princess when the latter mde it 2-from-2 at her second start. Her last effort was a well beaten second to Rich Girl, where she was hanging rather badly up the straight at Clairwood in a small field of five, a tendency she’d also shown behind Pine Princess. Drawn widest of all, and with no guarantee that this distance will suit, she looks to have it all to do.

Eros’s Girl won her first two starts, both over 1200m at Kenilworth, both times odds-on. She made her KZN debut in the Tibouchina Stakes, finishing well beaten, and hanging. That clearly wasn’t her run, and she’s bound to put up a bolder showing here. There’s no way to gauge how good she is or isn’t – the race will tell.

Eros’s Girl finished behind Seven Grand in the Tibouchina. That was Seven Grand’s third attempt in feature company following her debut win early in December. She missed the break badly in the Tibouchina, from a wide draw in a field of thirteen. That suggests she’s better than the rating she put up there, but even so she looks to have a lot to find in this field.

Joey Ramsden has two entries, reserve runner Thaler Point (who looks out of her depth here) and Grey Light. The latter is winner of her only start, over this course and distance. She was slow away that time, bumped, and raced wide – all the things that can easily get a first-timer beaten. Her trainer’s record over the years shows that a first-time out 2yo winner for him earns black type virtually without fail. Counting back to 1996 there have only been 33 such winners, but some of the names speak volumes: Something Else, Tara’s Touch, Starlit, Nania, Mother Russia (33/1 on debut!), Variety Club, King Of Pain, Red Ray… To add to this, Grey Light is a daughter of US sire-of-champions Tapit, her dam an unraced daughter of South African champion Harry’s Charm. Don’t say we didn’t warn you.

In summary, this race should provide fireworks. Common sense dictates to settle on Carry On Alice to regain her winning ways. But all of Alboran Sea, Balkan, and Grey Light could put a spoke in that wheel, while Rich Girl isn’t out of it either, and some of the lightly raced contenders such as Eros’s Girl and Love To Sail remain dark horses.

Have Your Say - *Please Use Your Name & Surname

Comments Policy
The Sporting Post encourages readers to comment in the spirit of enlightening the topic being discussed, to add opinions or correct errors. All posts are accepted on the condition that the Sporting Post can at any time alter, correct or remove comments, either partially or entirely.

All posters are required to post under their actual name and surname – no anonymous posts or use of pseudonyms will be accepted. You can adjust your display name on your account page or to send corrections privately to the EditorThe Sporting Post will not publish comments submitted anonymously or under pseudonyms.

Please note that the views that are published are not necessarily those of the Sporting Post.

Notify of
1 Comment
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments



Popular Posts