Zephira, well beaten when odds-on favourite for the SA Oaks, looks to make amends in the Betting World Oaks. There are three previous Oaks winners in the race, which is open to all ages this year
When is an Oaks not an Oaks? When it is open to fillies and mares of all ages, and run over 2500m at Clairwood. But it’s still called Oaks.
This year for the first time the Oaks is no longer restricted to the classic generation, while the distance has gone up from 2400m to 2500m. You’d think that anyone with a feel for history and tradition would at least have changed the name as well. Just how the race kept its Gr2 status is a complete mystery – the NHA’s Graded Races committee has much to answer for.
All that aside, this year’s Oaks is run at weight-for-age: 3yo’s on 56kg, 4yo’s with 59.5kg, and older mares 60kg. Putting it more simply: the horses with the highest ratings should have the best chance of winning. Let’s take it from the top.
Ilha Bela as been up and down of late
Ilha Bela has shown rather up-and-down form in terms of ratings this year. Her best run by some way was in the Sun Classique handicap over 2400m at Kenilworth in January, when second to Silver Holly. Following her return to Gauteng she ran two well below-par races, when showing pace before fading to run way below best. Ilha returned to form last time out, when beaten a short-head by Negev in a 1600m race at Turffontein. As winner of the SA Oaks two years ago, she should have no trouble with this Oaks distance and a good run looks on the cards.
Course and distance winner Adobe Pink had a long lay-off, from July last year until April. She’s had two runs since, of which the last one was a career best in terms of ratings when she finished a close second to Star Jet over 2000m at this course. A repeat of that kind of effort will put her in with a chance. Her wide draw should not be an issue – she has done equally well racing handy as from off the pace.
Dylan’s Promise attempts a first: the Betting World Oaks-double. The Australian import has shown fairly consistent form since winning this race last year, over a variety of distances. She reportedly had colic in April, but ran well enough on her return in a 1450m race to suggests she’s in good form again. She has the services of Anton Marcus. The blinkers are coming off, but not much should be read into that, as she has won both with and without.
Snaith’s Star Jet
Star Jet won her last start, going away, with Adobe Pink in second. That effort was on a par with her previous best rating, when winning over a mile at Fairview in January. Whether he daughter of Jet Master will see out the distance (assuming the race is run at a decent pace) is uncertain. In addition, she’s worse off at the weights with Adobe Pink – by a kilo or two, which is worth some 3 or 4 lengths over this distance.
Educated put a career-best rating up when winning a handicap in April, making it 4 wins and a second from five starts since November. That rating was well up on previous from, and also on what she showed subsequently. She finished a well beaten fifth in the race won by Star Jet from Adobe Pink, and will have to lift her game to have a chance here. Educated races with blinkers for the first time, which adds further uncertainty.
Educated’s stable companion Sounds Of Tigers has just one win from sixteen career outings, although she came close a few times. One of her best efforts was a year ago over this course and distance, when beaten a head by Adobe Pink in the Queen Palm handicap. She received 5kg on that occasion, and raced massively under sufferance, resulting in a large MR increase.
Her form since then has been a bit of a mixed bag. It is hard to see her turn the tables on Adobe Pink, with the latter having run some way above the rating since the two last battled it out.
SA Oaks winner Ash Cloud is one of five 3yo’s in the race. Her Oaks win came out of the blue (she won at 16/1), and represented a career-best rating, well up from previous. Her only subsequent run was in the Woolavington 2000, again starting at 16/1. She finished eight lengths behind winner In The Fast Lane, after having raced handy. That puts a bit of a cloud over the value of her SA Oaks win, and she’ll have to show here that the win wasn’t fluke.
Woodruff’s Zephira could atone
Zephira had started as odds-on favourite in the Oaks won by Ash Cloud, but never got a blow in. She’d previously beaten Ash Cloud in the SA Fillies Classic, and did so again in the Woolavington. Her trainer, mystified by her Oaks run, fitted blinkers to Zephyra in the Woolavington. Missing the break, and virtually last until coming into the Greyville straight, she did well to finish fifth, some five lengths behind the winner after having anything but a clear passage up the straight. That run suggests she’s better than rated and it would come as no surprise to see her finish best of the 3yo’s in this race. The blinkers come off again, which may or may not be the right decision. Like Ash Cloud, she has her first run on a left-handed track.
Omaticaya finished a length behind Zephira and two in front of Ash Cloud in the Woolavington 2000. That effort was a little below her best in terms of ratings – that best had been a 3-lengths sixth in the Majorca Stakes (weight-for-age) behind Beach Beauty in January. Omaticaya tries this kind of distance for the first time here. She’s by Silvano out of a Jet Master mare who won up to 1500m, so we’ll have to wait and see. Her Woolavington effort, over 2000m, was good enough to suggest she gets her stamina from Silvano. It’s hard to see her turning the tables on Zephira, though.
Shingwedzi has not been out of the first two in her last six starts. She missed the Woolavington (as reserve runner), and her feature race efforts to date were two seconds behind She’s A Pippa in PE, over a mile and 2000m. It’s hard to know how she’ll fare in this company, but there’s every chance the distance will suit. That said, big improvement will be needed on her ratings shown so far.
Jet Flo goes beyond a mile for the first time. She’s by Jet Master out of good sprinter Just Like Flo. She’s full sister to a winner up to 1800m, and half sister to two winners over 2500m by Al Mufti. On balance of probability she should not stay this far, but she can only but try. Added to that, her form shown to date gives her little chance to feature in this company. The same goes for Mink Trip, who has good recent form, but in very modest company.
Anton Marcus may have an ace up his sleeve
In summary, a fascinating contest. With the start quite close to the bend, there may be a scramble to find position, followed by a slowing of the pace in the early part of the back straight. Several of the runners often race handy, but only two have done well making the pace: Dylan’s Promise and Ash Cloud.
Anton Marcus on Dylan’s Promise may well try and do his usual magic upfront (slowing it up before going for home).
Weichong Marwing on Ash Cloud may have different ideas, his filly probably benefiting from a good test of stamina. It would come as no surprise to see Ash Cloud make the running, to secure a true run race. They’ll have to come and fetch her!
That fetching may well be done by an improving Zephira, who is our first choice to get home from Ilha Bela, Dylan’s Promise and Ash Cloud.
