Ilha Bela has been racing against much stronger
When you consider that in real terms this is a handicap, it is quite surprising that only ten will go to post. Interestingly though, just ten went to post last season also, and none of them are racing here today.
Shouldering top weight of 60kg is the Ormond Ferraris trained S’il Vous Plait. A winner of eight of his 29 starts to date this 6yo son of Silvano is as honest as they come. His only previously outing over today’s distance was in the Gr1 Gold Cup at Greyville last July where he was only beaten 4,2 lengths.
He goes well at this course and was staying on strongly when only beaten 4,85 lengths when a little out at the weights in a conditions plate behind last season’s runner up in this race Seal last time out.
Dom’s Duo
A short head in front of S’il Vous Plait in that race won by Seal was the younger Storm Warning. Seeking a hat-trick in that event, Dominic Zaki’s charge had been showing steady improvement.
Three of his four career wins have been gained over 2600m, but interestingly he has been comfortably beaten in each of his two outings over further. As well as Storm Warning trainer Dominic Zaki is also represented by the 7yo Winning Leap.
This son of Labeeb won four of his first 8 career starts and amongst those successes was victory in the 2010 running of this race. Without a win since Oct ’12 though, Winning Leap has only managed to find the winner’s enclosure twice in 30 outings since.
Ilha Bela
The class horse of the race is undoubtedly Ilha Bela. Eighth in the Summer Cup earlier in the season, Mike De Kock’s sole representative in the race is yet to race this far.
She was running on strongly at the finish in each of her two recent starts in Cape Town over 2400m and 2800m though, and looks sure to get the extra. She can fight it out.
Yer-Maan
The stable of St John Gray has come to hand nicely in recent meetings and in the son of Jam Alley, he has a serious runner here. He’s been comfortably beaten in each of his last two outings, but he has in main been taking on stronger. He was only beaten half a length by Storm Warning three runs back and he is now 4,5kg better off at the weights with that one.
Mirage Drive
Third in a Gr3 handicap over this trip way back in 2010, Tyrone Zackey’s charge has a lot going for him in this race. He is very well handicapped on his earlier form and having his third run after a rest here he has clearly been targeted at this race. He is now a 7yo though, and with only two wins in his last 27 outings you would expect him to find at least one better again here.
Form Horse
The form horse in the race is undoubtedly Magic Smoke. More often than not seen out over shorter on sand, Michael Azzie’s charge is currently rated 18 points higher on that surface.
She has gained four of her seven career victories on turf though, and after winning the last two of those in good style going away, she comes into this race seeking a hat-trick. This daughter of Fort Wood can clearly improve further on turf and the extra looks sure to suit.
Sky Rise
Other than Winning Leap, the only runner in the field to have won over today’s course and distance is Sky Rise. Weiho Marwing’s charge showed good improvement earlier in the season and on the best of that form he would have a shout here. Since winning the Gr3 Racing Association Handicap over this trip in November though, he’s failed to finish better than sixth in five starts.
Joey’s Bid
Trainer Joey Soma saddles Savage Wind and Rodeo Sioux and both are in good form at the moment. Thought good enough to contest the KZN Derby last season, Savage Wind amazingly had only won a maiden event prior to picking up a pinnacle stakes a fortnight ago.
He has run some very good races in defeat though, and he did win particularly well over 2600m on the inner track last time out. He should be thereabouts.
Stable companion Rodeo Sioux is as consistent as they come and she was only beaten a neck by Storm Warning on similar terms in February. She showed good pace last time out when beaten by Magic Smoke in the listed Spook Express handicap, but the manner in which Magic Smoke flew past her at the business end of the race she will find it difficult to turn the tables on just 1,5kg better terms.
About The Pace
Rodeo Sioux and Mirage Drive are both capable of ensuring a fair clip and it will be in their respective interests to do so. Ilha Bela is the class horse in the race and although she has not been at her very best of late, she is more than capable of winning here and gets the vote. Most likely to chase her home are Magic Smoke, Yer-Maan and Storm Warning.
