The golden handcuffs that keep our handicappers on their very best behaviour point to a potentially interesting ‘opportunity’, for want of a better word, in Saturday’s R500 000 Gr2 Dingaans at Turffontein.
Besides the fact that last Saturday’s Gr2 Selangor Cup fall from grace for some of our top 3yo’s has thrown the Cape Guineas picture wide open, the recent very public poker game between champion trainer Mike de Kock and the handicapper adds to the interest of what could be a fascinating race within a race.
Big Bear – looks well in
The first runner of real interest though, and one that could be carrying the concealed claw of a somewhat unrealistic merit rating, is Sean Tarry’s Emperors Palace Ready To Run Stakes winner, Big Bear.
The son of Await The Dawn registered a hat-trick when he easily won the rich sales race earlier this month, and beating an MR 106 and MR 107 rated runner in the process.
That being a non black-type feature, the handicappers treated the contest as a normal plate race for assessment purposes and could only penalise Big Bear 6 pounds. On Saturday he runs off an official 91.
The NHA’s Manager of Handicapping, Roger Smith
On inquiry, Chief handicapper Roger Smith confirmed that they have Big Bear listed with a shadow rating of 108. That ties in neatly with our own handicappers, who pushed Big Bear up from an 87 to an ability rating of 106 after his Ready To Run win.
The next horse worth a second look, and the possible joker in the pack, is Mike de Kock’s Pietro Mascagni, the subject of a well publicised merit rating appeal after an impressive, albeit narrow, debut win at end October. While the gist of De Kock’s appeal was not unhappiness with the handicapper’s seemingly rare leniency, but rather a bid to get the son of Silvano into the classic stream as swiftly as possible, we are left knowing that he is highly regarded by one of the best judges in the game – and that he can only improve over the mile.
Mike De Kock
The handicapper’s have stuck to their original 79 with Pietro Mascagni and the only guarantee is that there will be two camps of expectant onlookers come Saturday!
This is a level weights contest, so if Big Bear doesn’t win easily and Pietro Mascagni is not something special, then we should be looking at the likes of the ‘official’ top two rated runners in poorly drawn topweight Flying Free and KZN challenger Monks Hood. Frankly, neither have shown enough to upset the likes of Big Bear.
An interesting runner is Pietro Mascagni’s stablemate Like A Panther – a possible Cape Derby or Sun Met prospect if the track talk is correct. The son of Captain Al followed up on his maiden win with a good score over the older Amsterdam last time. He looks likely to prefer a 2000m test.
In a race of embarrassing riches for De Kock, he also saddles two unbeaten twice-raced Australian-bred gallopers. Alwahsh and Alshibaa are bred to win and could be just about anything.
This could be the race of the day and we are siding with Big Bear to make it four on the trot.
