3yo Maybe Yes attempts a feature-double following her Fillies Guineas win
Two talented 3yo fillies take on eight older fillies and mares at weight-for-age, meaning they meet on level terms and the horse with the highest Merit Rating should win. Wish it was that simple. The draw matters at Clairwood in races over 1450m, distance suitability is an issue, and current form comes into it as well. The score for the last eight runnings of the race is level – 3yo’s won four, and so did the older generation. Let’s look at the field in order of MR’s.
Hammie’s Hooker (108) won over this course and distance last month, by six lengths in a field of ten, at odds-on. Her merit rating was promptly increased by 5 points, which seems less than realistic given that she had consistently performed on a 103 level during the Cape season and also at her first start this winter season in KZN, when beaten a nose. Such a sudden improvement in ability seldom happens. Happily, when taken on her previous rating the daughter of Trippi is still in with a great chance. She’s in good form and looks distance suited.
Hammie’s stable companion Fly By Night (106) surprised friend and foe when almost defeating Via Africa in the SA Fillies Sprint last time out, with the field three and more lengths behind the two fillies. That left the handicapper with little choice other than to re-assess the rating of the daughter of Jet Master. She went from MR 93 to 106. This, too, seems an unlikely improvement for a 4yo who had performed consistently at lower level in fifteen career starts. Our ratings went up in tandem with the official handicapper, though, from 95 to 110. Most of Fly By Night’s races have been over 1200m, and how she’ll cope with the extra is another question mark.
Maybe Yes (105) is one of the two 3yo’s in the race. She won the Fillies Guineas on her KZN debut over a mile at Greyville, winning by almost two lengths, at odds of 16/1. Her Merit Rating went up by six points as a result. Interestingly, after her previous start she’d been a length third to Priceless Jewel and Lanner Falcon in the Prix du Cap, which got her an 11 point increase. Meaning that in two start she went up 17 points. For a fairly lightly raced classy 3yo this certainly isn’t impossible. The daughter of Tiger Ridge has a plum draw at one, and seems likely to race handy again (as she did from a 2 draw in the Guineas). She must have a great chance to make it a feature double.
Jet Aglow (104) beat Hammie’s Hooker by a whisker in the 1800m Victress stakes during the Cape summer season. She followed up with an excellent third to Beach Beauty in the 1800m Paddock stakes (a career best effort on our ratings), and another 3rd in the 1600m Empress Club stakes won by Here Comes Polly. Seen in that distance-light, her three lengths third to Via Africa and Fly By Night in the SA Fillies Sprint was a good effort. The 1450m distance of this race will be more suitable, and assuming there’s a good pace, she’s bound to be running on.
Louvre (103) won this race last year, holding off Espumanti by a head, after setting the pace. Racing upfront is her normal style of running, but she’ll have to make an early effort from draw 10 to get there. Her last run was over this course and distance, when drawn 12 out of 12. She missed the break, went handy, to run fourth beaten less than two lengths. On our ratings she ran below somewhat best, not surprisingly the race went for her. It’ll be interesting to see what tactics are followed here. On the face of it she has much against her.
Jet Supreme (100) is yet another daughter of Jet Master in the field. She has raced over all sorts of distances in top company during her career, with excellent ratings over a mile and more. That said, she made her seasonal debut in KZN with a length fourth to Jet Belle in the 1200m Poinsettia stakes, recording a career best rating with us. She was reported as not striding out at her most recent start, in the SA Fillies Sprint. It is hard to know what to expect here. She looks to have a stiff task.
Izora (96) has been mostly very well supported at her five starts this season, but found the winner’s box only once. This is her first venture in feature company, following her fifth in the Fillies Guineas a year ago. She seems likely to race handy from her low draw, but appears to lack the ability to race against the best on level terms.
Highly Decorated (95) is the second 3yo in the line-up. Still lightly raced, her career best effort was a very close second to stable companion In The Fast Lane in the 1400m Fillies Championship during the Cape summer. She refused to settle for Strydom in the Cape Fillies Guineas next time out (won by In The Fast Lane), finishing near-last. Following a 4-month absence, she started at short odds on her KZN debut, but ran some way below her best rating. She probably needed that run. If it and well she seems likely to improve on her rating – which certainly is necessary to have a chance in this field.
Dolomiti (93) and King’s Temptress (91) have recent form well below their ratings and appear to be unlikely contenders.
In summary, with the start close to the bend and several fillies likely to race handy, this should be a true run race. Hammie’s Hooker and Jet Aglow look to have the best chance of the older generation. They’ll have to reckon with Maybe Yes, who might well be able to swing it for the 3yo’s this year.
