When is a handicap not a handicap? In the last dozen years, the Acacia handicap has been won by short priced favourites six times, three of them starting at odds-on.
Remember? Off The Mark beat Sensible Lover last year – both are back for more
Given that according to the NHA’s Rules a handicap is a race ‘in which the weights to be carried by the horses are allocated by the handicapper for the purpose of equalising their chances of winning’ those short winner’s odds are startling stats.
The market clearly didn’t think the weights allocated by the official handicapper were correct, and at least half the time they weren’t wrong!
Remember? The gutsy 2014 Acacia Handicap winner Orator’s Daughter
The Acacia handicap, restricted to fillies and mares, is run over a mile on the standside track. The draw appears to be of lesser importance, and in the last two years the trifecta was made up of draws 8/13/2 and 6/11/8, on good and soft going.
Sporting Post’s best handicapped of the 15 runners is Silver Class, who recorded a career-best rating over the course and distance last November. Her two subsequent runs, over 1400m, were disappointing, but don’t write her off.
Sensible Lover – second highest rated runner – needs to recapture form of November
Next in the ratings is Sensible Lover, who finished ahead of Silver Class in November, and also dropped the ball in her subsequent two runs. A return to the November form would give her a first chance.
Rated slightly behind her is the trio of Shaama, Tahini and Work Ethic.
Tahini finished ahead of Sensible Lover and Silver Class in November, then travelled to the Cape where she had three runs in top company – races won by Whisky Baron, Bela-Bela and Nightingale. She never quite got involved from off the pace in those races. Better this time!
Shaama was off the track from February last year until January. Her two runs since then were an excellent win and a second. She tries a mile for the first time and on her best 2yo rating (when second in the SA Nursery) would have this field stone-cold. She could well be the next short-priced winner.
Work Ethic – could be a dark horse!
Work Ethic ran a nice race on polytrack at Greyville in January, but her runs prior to that and afterwards were disappointing. She’s another whose best rating was higher than we have her here, so she cannot be taken lightly.
Going down the race ratings, there’s last year’s winner Off The Mark, who looks well held by Shaama.
Piere Strydom – rides Polyphonic
Next is Cassie O’Malley, who usually races with the pace, but is drawn 13 and will have to make an early effort to get to her favoured position. Her usual tactics are not easy to execute and she isn’t always able to get home.
Pennington Sands often spoils her chances by starting slowly and cannot afford to do that in this company.
Polyphonic finished second in the November race mentioned earlier, and she’s yet another whose two subsequent runs were way below that form – although she started at short odds both times. She was dropped two points by the handicapper, and has Strydom in the saddle here.
Nother Russia has shown solid, good form in three starts following a break from March till November last year. She should have the beating of Banking April following on from their last encounter.
Bella Sonata looks closely matched with Kilauea, who beat Shaama at level weights last time, but is worse off at the weights.
Topweighted Flying Ice is back in blinkers
Top-weighted Flying Ice has had two runs following a break from July to November. The second of those suggests that she may be back to best here with the blinkers back on.
She would probably have preferred a stiffer test distance-wise, though. Cape-visitor Leisure Trip looks to be an optimistic entry, and competes under sufferance by a few points.
