The Louis Goosen yard has been in smart form in KZN and will be looking to transfer some of that performance to Turffontein today. The Goose saddles the very decent Zen Arcade in the R250 000 Gr3 Graham Beck Stakes.
Zen Arcade – better than rated?
Weights for this 1400m race are set at a base of 54kg for 2-time winners (or fewer), with 2kg added for each win more than two. Graded wins in the period 18 months prior to date of issuing weights incur a further increase: Gr1 win 3kg, Gr2 2kg, Gr3 1kg.
As things work out, we have a field of just one and 2-time winners, with 54kg across the board. As a result weights have been raised to the obligatory top-weight of 60kg – all runners carry the same, and meet on level terms. Meaning the horses with the highest ratings must have the best chance – assuming they are distance suited. The horses have been carded in order of official Merit ratings so let’s go through them in order.
Gavin van Zyl – saddles Flying Free
Flying Free has highly consistent form, never been unplaced, and running two good seconds at his most recent starts. He’s proven over the distance, but has a diabolical draw at sixteen. If it wasn’t for that he might have been a good thing.
Hakeem is lightly raced, and ran below his previous best on his return from a break last month, reported hanging. He has quite a wide draw and will have to make an early effort to get to his usual handy position. This race should show how good he is.
Borya is stable companion to Flying Free and also drawn very wide. He didn’t settle on his return from a break last time out, when racing upfront. His best career run was over a mile in a feature in July, and it’s still difficult to gauge how good he is.
Sea King ran below best on his seasonal debut last month, in a race where Hakeem was well ahead of him. His best form has been over a mile, and he’s drawn quite wide.
Louis Goosen – great start in KZN
Zen Arcade has had three runs, winning his last two starts over 1200 and 1400m (poly). On the face of it he seems likely to be better than rated, and jumps from a fair draw. He must have a great chance.
Full Mast has useful form over a mile and more. He likes to race with the pace, but might now find this 1400m on the sharp side. Our ratings differ quite a bit with those of the official handicapper, and leave him with quite a bit to do. The race will tell.
Prince Of Kahal ran to his best form on his seasonal debut last month, despite being difficult to settle. He looks distance suited, and might well have improvement to come.
Darkest Hour won two in a row, but disappointed last time out. He may find it difficult in this company.
Keanan’s Rock did not race from May to October, and ran way below best on return.
Ideal Secret ran to a career-best rating last time out, after missing the break. He might improve on that rating.
Orpheus has the services of Strydom, but on form shown to date looks to have a tough task. Strydom had ridden Ideal Secret at all his starts to date, leaving us to wonder why he switches now to Orpheus.
Zerodarkthirty ran well below best on his seasonal debut in September, He was subsequently gelded. He’ll have to improve to feature.
Wondrous Climber was off the track from May to October, and ran well below previous best on return.
Sean Tarry – has four runners here
Missouri won his last two starts by narrow margins. He’s probably better than rated, but has quite some improvement to make if he is to feature.
Seerite won his only start to date in good style, at odds of 30/1, over the course and distance, drawn 12 out of 12. He has a better draw here, but jockey Wroeman has deserted him in favour of Zen Arcade.
Silver God and Mambo Symphony are reserve runners.
In summary, Zen Arcade looks the one to be with. He may have the beating of Flying Free and Prince Of Kahal, with Hakeem he dark horse.
