Liquid Mercury – promising and will enjoy the trip
The final leg of the Cape Winter Series sees a step up in ground to 2400m and will separate the men from the boys. The R250 000 Gr3 Winter Derby has attracted a field of eleven and should prove a genuine test of staying ability – with Joey Ramsden’s Liquid Mercury looking likely to relish every inch of it.
With the Vodacom Durban July just around the corner, the question of pace, or a lack of it, which bedevils and undermines so many races, is a hot topic.
Pace
Leading owner Jack Mitchell summed it up well, when referring to his concerns about the increasing incidence of poor pace in many of the country’s top races:
He mentions last year’s July (“Look at the time. It was chronic”), this year’s Queen’s Plate and the Pinnacle that Futura won in May. “We have long had the Cape crawl but now we seem to have the Durban dawdle as well. If there is a good horse in a race the other jockeys will often try to beat it with a slow pace.”
“I’m not blaming them but I do think the stipes should get on top of this. Apart from anything else, this tactic causes trouble and concertinaing the field can be dangerous.”
Fractions
Joey Ramsden- strong hand
So with a massive armoury at his disposal, it is strange to see that Joey Ramsden has not included a hare to aid the chances of his talented grey Trippi gelding Liquid Mercury.
With places in both the first two legs of the series (a fourth behind stablemate Act Of War in the Guineas and a third to Royal Dreamer in the Classic), Liquid Mercury looks ready to pick up his fifth win.
Bernard Fayd’herbe was at him for a long way in the Winter Classic and he was only found out by the superior toe of eventual winner Royal Dreamer, who quickened better in the final 100m.
Liquid Mercury will have no excuses over the extra 600m on Saturday and looks the best deal in terms of class and suitability.
Bass Duo
Royal Dreamer winning the Winter Classic
Classic winner Royal Dreamer cannot be discarded.
Mike Bass’ son of Rebel King made up plenty of ground from some way back to get up on the line to shade Sail For Gold and Liquid Mercury.
While there is not too much in his breeding that says he should go this far, he has won over 2000m on the Kenilworth summer course.
His stablemate Seven Oceans failed to quicken in the Classic when beaten close on 7 lengths.
He looks outgunned.
Snaith Attack
Justin Snaith’s coupling includes E Cape Derby runner-up Master’s Eye.
The St Tropez collateral has proven fairly reliable and the son of Jet Master must be considered a danger – even though stable jockey Richard Fourie has opted to ride Seize The Throne.
This son of Dynasty has returned from two runs in Durban – where he was beaten into second at his penultimate start by Caribbean Day.
His breeding suggests that he will go well over this type of ground and at best, and if not suffering any hangover from his Durban sojourn, may surprise.
Stan Elley – My World has won over the course and distance
Stan Elley’s Ideal World gelding My World has won over the course and distance and was just over a length behind Master’s Eye in the E Cape Derby.
He looks a decent stayer in the making and may pay to include.
Brett Crawford’s Night In Seattle was just over 2 lengths off Royal Dreamer in the Classic.
His earlier form over shorter was clean and consistent – but it must be a gamble that he goes 2400m.
Genuine Stayers
Greg Ennion’s coupling of Revved Up and Irish Dynasty are both two time winners and stay well – but have they got the class to win a race of this nature?
Revved Up is a son of Kildonan, and he showed plenty of stamina reserves when beating the older and accomplished longhauler Juddering Angel over the Kenilworth 2500m last time. He has won 2 of his last 3 starts and is obviously improving.
Stablemate Irish Dynasty was a shock course and distance winner last time after an extended quiet spell. That was in a lowly rated MR 72 Handicap and this will be a little tougher.
Vaughan Marshall-trained Even So is another experienced two-time winning young stayer.
He ran 3,85 lengths behind Irish Dynasty last time but comes down the weights against his peers.
He looks a likely pacemaker but will need plenty of improvement to win.
Jumping At Height
Darryl Hodgson’s Parachute Man tries serious ground for the first time but appears to be battling after starting out promisingly.
He will enjoy the expert guidance of veteran Karl Neisius, but can only harbour place prospects at best.
Liquid Mercury is the class and looks likely to enjoy the test.
