The Lexus Melbourne Cup will be televised live on Tellytrack 1 on Tuesday morning. The off time for the A$7,8 million race from Flemington in Australia is 06h00 our time.
For the uninitiated, the Melbourne Cup is a 3200m handicap, run on the first Tuesday in November, and these days has become the playground for European owners and trainers, ever-confident their stoutly-bred stars can outstay the locals.
Jim McGrath reports on www.attheraces.com that statistics say that confidence is justified.
Eight of the last 10 Cup winners were sent out by European-based trainers or started their careers in the Northern Hemisphere.
Aidan O’Brien – strong hand
Aidan O’Brien has been trying to win the Cup since 2006 when he sent out Yeats to finish seventh. The following year, his three-year-old Mahler was a gallant third, but in 2008, his three-pronged attack with Septimus, Alessandro Volta and Honolulu ended in disappointment, and controversy, with the trio 18th, 20th and 21st, respectively.
Ballydoyle obviously have the bit between their teeth and are determined to pull it off this time, shipping out Anthony Van Dyck, last year’s Investec Derby winner, and Tiger Moth, the Irish Derby runner-up, who trotted up in a mile-and-a-half Group 3 at Leopardstown, earning a 5lb penalty, which got him into the Cup field near the minimum.
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Then came the draw — and it’s important in the Cup because once early positions are taken up, the pace can then slow, which inevitably leads to a sprint home over the last 1000m, so it pays to be within reasonable striking distance.
Hollywoodbets’ ruling 13-2 favourite Tiger Moth drew 23 of the 24 runners, which means three-time winner Kerrin McEvoy will have to call on all the expertise he displayed coming from rear to win on Cross Counter in 2018. For an inexperienced European three-year-old, this is a big ask.
ANTHONY VAN DYCK (Galileo x Believe N Succeed) wins the G1 Epsom Derby in 2019- Photo – Bronwen Healy. The Image is Everything. Bronwen Healy Photography.
On the other hand, Anthony Van Dyck has drawn perfectly in three, which compels Hugh Bowman to ‘box seat’ behind the pace, which on paper, is far from guaranteed to be solid.
History dictates that with 58.5kg, the son of Galileo will have to be the equal of Bart Cummings’ dual winner Think Big, who successfully carried that weight in 1975. But there are two big positives in ‘Anthony‘s’ favour — the likely fast ground and that he has thrived since his fine second in the Caulfield Cup.
The three biggest runs from Caulfield were the winner Verry Elleegant, who ran through the line strongly, earning a half kilo Cup penalty, Anthony Van Dyck, who produced a Herculean effort to come from near-last on the turn, and fourth Prince Of Arran, whose performance underlines how much he relishes Melbourne.
It will come down to luck and the way the race is run, but Anthony Van Dyck has the ground and the draw in his favour, with the burning question being whether he can give away so much weight on his first crack at 3200m.
2019 thriller – Vow And Declare wins the Cup last year – he runs again
