I need to apologise in advance for my ignorance of the rules that govern the merit rating system. My observations here relate solely to the end result, as reflected in the weight that horses are assigned to carry in handicap races, comments Oscar Foulkes.
I can’t remember much of my school maths – certainly nowhere near enough to help my kids with their homework, but I do remember the phrase: “Reductio ad absurdum.” Admittedly, the teacher’s use may have been slightly incorrect, in that he was using it to describe the taking of logical steps and ending up with a result far removed from where one wants/expects to be.
I spent some time yesterday looking at the runners in tomorrow’s Lonsdale Stirrup Cup. Topping the weights are two two-time winners, No Worries and Shogunnar. Both of them have run fairly close (within two or four lengths) in Grade 1 races. The indication is that neither of them is able to beat the best at weight-for-age, and appear to be weighted out of handicaps.
One couldn’t argue with a Gold Cup winner, Jeppe’s Reef, appearing near the top of the weights. Eton Mess is a nine-time winner, who has worked his way through the handicaps. Similarly Baracah.
Then you get to Gothic, who appears to have emerged unscathed from his half-length second to Wylie Hall in the SA Derby. Wylie Hall went on to finish a close fourth in the Daily News, almost on terms with No Worries. However, Gothic is carrying 54.5kg in the Lonsdale, a full 5.5kg less than No Worries. In fairness, there may be a couple of gaps in Gothic’s form since then, but he’s had some decent runs over this kind of distance.
Even lower down in the weights – on 52kg – we get to Wild One, who recorded similar form behind Wylie Hall in the SA Derby. He, too, hasn’t won since then, but his form over distances that are probably on the sharp side for him has been consistent.
The SA Derby delivers another apparent inconsistency, in the form of Gone Baby Gone, who finished five lengths (5 lbs) behind Louis The King in this year’s Derby. If Louis were running in the Lonsdale, what weight would he be carrying? My assumption is that it would be more than the theoretical 54.5kg (i.e. 5 lbs more than Gone Baby Gone).
Any owners or trainers looking at horses like No Worries or Shogunnar would think twice about running their horses in Grade 1 races, unless they were fairly certain of going close to winning. Running a place may be prestigious, but it’s the kiss of death as far as future wins are concerned. Incidentally, Shogunnar was a one-time winner until he found a conditions race in November last year.
Murphy’s Law may come into play tomorrow, as No Worries and Shogunnar sweep into an unassailable lead up the Greyville straight. However, my money – both literally and figuratively – will be on the side of logic. From the punter’s perspective, that is the point of handicaps.
From a racing perspective, a re-look at the merit rating system appears to be overdue.
