The National Horseracing Authority have urged pre-race presenters and racing journalists to utilize data to inform the betting public with facts, rather than perpetuating the myth that somehow, and despite the evidence, that older ‘hard knocking’ horses are difficult to beat.
A marginally sarcastic quotation was provided by the racing regulator, and attributed to American economist, author, and social commentator Thomas Sowell, and could well be interpreted by the more sensitive amongst us as a swipe at the same time.
The quote states: “It is usually futile to try to talk facts and analysis to people who are enjoying a sense of moral superiority in their ignorance.”
In their weekly publication of the past weekend’s feature race ratings adjustments, the NHA handicappers noted that 3-year-olds comfortably accounted for the older ‘hard knocking’ horses in the Laisserfaire Handicap (Listed) at Hollywoodbets Durbanville, while it was also observed that the only 3-year-old in the Summer Pudding Handicap (Listed) run at Turffontein also comfortably accounted for the older ‘hard knocking’ runners in that event.
This further confirms the recent Sophomore Crop Review published on 3 November 2023 by the Handicappers, where the data clearly showed that the 3-year-olds continually outperform their older counterparts at handicap terms.
This sort of data should be mentioned by pre-race presenters and racing journalists to inform the betting public with facts, rather than perpetuating the myth that somehow and despite the evidence that older ‘hard knocking’ horses are difficult to beat.
They also advised a deviation from the Handicapping Guidelines iro an exceptional performance for a 4yold Maiden Winner.
The Handicappers deemed that Edward Roye put up an exceptional performance when easily beating a Maiden field at Turffontein on Sunday over the 1160m trip. In terms of the Handicapping Guidelines, the Handicappers would usually cap a 4-year-old at a 75 rating.
The Handicappers deemed this performance to be exceptional as Edward Rye achieved a performance figure of 83 (8 pounds higher than the suggested guideline cap) and won with ease.
The time of the race was 1.84 seconds faster than the filly’s Maiden plate on the day and was the only time on the day that was faster than the class average time.
The Handicappers further felt that this 4-year-old was not a typically well exposed 4-year-old maiden winner, as this was only his 4th career start.
It was further considered that the winner was returning from a 236 day lay-off and having his first run for a new stable. Edward Rye was given a rating of 83 which was his performance figure for his win on the 12 November 2023.