The Search For A Good Racehorse

Quantitative Analysis Model

The search for a good racehorse has been made a little easier by an innovative local private partnership who have developed an interesting Quantitative Analysis Model, founded on Probability Theory that maintains the facts seldom lie.

Building of the Research Model commenced in 2019 and was formalised in 2022 with the formation of ETHANICITY Research.

Searching for a champion!

The Research Partners are avid horseracing enthusiasts, small owners and also founders of an exciting new low-cost Breeding initiative called Dream Breeders Club that offers membership to anybody anywhere.

Their love of horseracing is patently obvious and they hope that their efforts will in some small way contribute to a sustainable horseracing industry for SA.

The ER service is geared towards assisting new and smaller owners with buying selections given the large owners are all already understandably ensconced with their circles of advisers and/or equipped with an advanced level of understanding.

Similarly with Breeders, all of the larger more experienced and established operations know what they are doing and unlikely to call on ER. It is the first time, emerging and smaller class of Breeders that could benefit from what ER offers.

Even though their ER method has been in development and trialled over the past 5 years the Partners are acutely aware and respectful of the fact that they still have a long way to go to earn their stripes by proving their method in an industry that possesses many very learned, proven, talented horseracing experts at a time in which significant consolidation has occurred.

The critical output of the ER Racing Model is a Probability Rating that predicts the future racing probability of horses by searching deep and wide into the pedigree and historical racing performance of the family for indicators of future racing potential derived from facts.

ER believes that understanding what is “under the hood of the horse” and behind a horse is as equally important as its confirmation and that both assessments are critical in the identification of future racing potential.

Not only can the ER Model be used to identify future racing probability, but it can also be utilised to assess future broodmare and sire potential across the spectrum of current and emerging bloodlines in SA.

The aim of this research is to enable clients to receive alternative information to guide the decisions to breed or not.

They are under no illusion that predicting future potential is a minefield and that their model has,  and will ,call it wrong.

The ER model is being continuously checked and updated as the dynamic of bloodlines and performance becomes known. When a wrong call is made an investigation is carried out to try and determine the reasons why and then improve the model to improve its reliability.

They maintain that every predictive model is far from perfect and only as good as it is correct more times than it is wrong.

They hope that their reports will provide a fresh alternative and additional perspective to the decision-making deliberations of their clients, ultimately for the benefit of horse racing.

Hereunder they offer the future racing probability ratings for a small selection of 2024 BSA National Yearling Sales horses.

ETHANICITY Research – 2024 BSA National Yearling Sales

The following is a short selection of just some horses that have been researched by ETHANICITY Research using Quantitative Assessment method for Future Race Performance Probability.

It IS NOT A TOP SELECTION but rather a selection of some horses that have been identified as having nice future performance probability.

IMPORTANT QUALIFICATION – no Conformation Assessment has been undertaken


40          Unnamed(C)                   One World x Amarillo Rose    

From a nick already proven to represent high potential, with a potent deep Dam Tail

Rating = 7.25/10


52          Unnamed(F)                    Querari x Atlantic Beach         

Both 1st and 2nd Dam contain racing and breeding performance, quality deep dam tail

Rating = 7.0/10


73          Cherry Lane(F)               Erik The Red x Candy Galore

Promising Freshman Sire throwing well conformed progeny

2nd dam reasonable racehorse, good broodmare, attractive pedigree convergence

Rating = 7.0/10


157        Unnamed(C)                   Rafeef x Gilded Minaret

Super quality pulling forward into this horse, rich pedigree in good positions

Rating = 7.75/10


171        Willewragtig(C)              The United States x Hazleton

Ignore prior covers, this carries reasonable promise.

1st Dam offers some quality to this sire

Rating = 6.5/10


181        Call The Midwife(F)      Futura x Idaho

Not much in the 1st generation , better in 2nd dam

3rd Dam pushes high quality forward for reasonable prospects

Rating = 6.75/10

Ratings have an accuracy tolerance of 0.25 both up and down on the issued Rating


reflecting back….searching forward

Contact Details: 

Dream Breeders Club –

Whatsapp 0833071478


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