Handicapper bowls a yorker at July hopefuls

The Merit Rating of Yorker has been raised from 112 to 120 following his win on Champions day.
Now, if Yorker takes his place in the Vodacom Durban July, then his new rating has a huge impact on the weights, given the conditions of the race.
The highest rated horse prior to Yorker’s increase from 112 was Master Of My Fate on MR 114.
Current weights to be carried by some of the likely contenders would be:
(showing weights without Yorker in brackets)

  • Yorker 60.0
  • Master Of My Fate 57.0 (60.0)
  • Hill Fifty Four 56.0 (59.0)
  • Capetown Noir 56.0 (59.0)
  • Tellina 55.0 (58.0)
  • Beach Beauty 55.5 (58.5)
  • Cherry on the Top 53.5 (56.5)
  • King of Pain 53.5 (56.5)
  • Louis the King 53.0 (55.5)
  • Captain America 53.0 (54.0)
  • In the Fast Lane 52.0 (53.5)
  • Athina  52.0 (52.0)

As it is unlikely that any older horse under MR 106 would make the field, the big relative impact is on the 3 year olds.
Assuming his current rating stays unchanged, Captain America is now 2kg worse off with the likes of Hill Fifty Four and Master Of My Fate.
Athina is 3kg worse off with the older horses, and 2.5kg worse off with the top colt.
In the Fast Lane is 1kg worse off with Louis The King, 1.5kg worse off with the older horses, but 1.5kg better off with Athina.
All this aside, Yorker beat Tellina (MR 110) by 3.25 lengths, and on that it seems to me that a raise to 115 would have been more appropriate.

Peter de Beyer – via email

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