Halve The Deficit looks like value in the July and Strydom rides – a big plus!
Just over two frenetic minutes of split second genius coupled with a few moments of madness is all it will take to settle the serious scores in Saturday’s R3,5 million Gr1 Vodacom Durban July. When the sixteen gates explode to release an atomic rush of equine brilliance, all the debate, the opinions and whatever went before will no longer matter. And it remains the one race every jockey, trainer, owner and breeder wants more than anything else.
This year’s renewal of Africa’s Greatest Horseracing Event and a race that boasts a proud tradition spanning three centuries is as big a thriller in the making than what we are ever likely to experience in our lifetimes.
That is despite the field having been reduced in size from 20 to 16 and the polytrack changing the familiar landscape. But that’s progress.
With no obvious genune pacesetters in the race, the question of who will go and lead (or dictate?) is open to debate. Piere Strydom said recently that they always ‘go like hell’ in the July. The race is packed with top jockeys. Somebody is going to get it right.
Then what of the impact of the draws on the new reduced tight track? Previously Dynasty and Pomodoro won it from 20. So if you are good enough, it doesn’t really matter apparently.
The Factions
There are three sectors in the race, each with their own passionate support group.
The major debate centres around the strength of the 3yo crop, which is seen generally as one of the best in many a year. But don’t we say that every year?
The three-year-olds boast 33 wins but 55% of the last 20 years, so things are evenly matched if we take history’s hand as a guide.
In the older ranks, the four-year-olds have won it 43 times but 35% of the last 20 years The five year olds have taken the honours 26 times.
The females have won it thrice in thirty years.
A case can realistically be made for each runner and history may well help point us in the right direction to some degree. But let’s face it, the race does start anew every year, so what does it all really mean?
The Achievers
Sean Tarry saddles Halve The Deficit and Whiteline Fever and aims for a historic hat-trick of wins
Since the distance changed to 2200m in 1970, only nine horses carrying 55kgs or more have won. Interestingly the strike percentage jumps dramatically recently, with six of those in the last seven years.
They are: 1978 Politician (57kgs) / 1980 Beau Art (55,5kgs) / 2000 El Picha (58kgs) / 2007 Hunting Tower (55kgs)/ 2008 Pocket Power (58kgs) / 2010 Bold Silvano (55,5kgs) / 2011 Igugu (55kgs) / 2012 Pomodoro (55kgs) /2013 Heavy Metal (59,5 kgs)
Of the twelve trainers with runners, this year, Dean Kannemeyer (2003/2006) , Geoff Woodruff (1999/2000), Sean Tarry (2012/2013), Mike De Kock(2010/2011), Justin Snaith(2008), Glen Kotzen(2009) and Charles Laird (2007) have all had previous success.
Mike Bass (2001/2005) is the only trainer to have won it in the 21st century, who has no runner this year.
Of the jockeys engaged on Saturday, seven of them have won the race.
Anton Marcus and Anthony Delpech lead that race with 4 winners each, followed by Piere Strydom (3), Kevin Shea (2), and then Karl Neisius, Bernard Fayd’herbe and S’manga Khumalo with one each.
Ramsden’s Gold Challenge winner King Of Pain could be ahead of the handicap
The Older Generation
There are seven horses in the ‘mature’ group.
The argument against them would be that they have all mostly reached their ceilings and what we see is what we will get.
That said, King Of Pain’s victory in the Gold Challenge was kindly treated by the handicapper and it could be argued that he is better in reality than his 114 rating.
Also worthy of consideration is Halve The Deficit’s scope to deliver more. He has been brought along quietly and his trainer is going for a hat-trick of wins, so knows what is needed.
Let’s take a look at the individual merits.
Sting In The Tale
Joey Ramsden’s Greys Inn gelding King Of Pain, the son of a former winner, stepped into the July limelight after a terrific end-to–end win in the Gr1 Gold Challenge a month ago. A supreme tactical ride in a race bereft of any pace saw him slam the likes of Beach Beauty, Yorker and Capetown Noir.
He has been lumped with topweight and asked to go 600m further here. But there is no definite clarification of a guaranteed pacemaker so the possibilities are there, but as the only grey in the race he stands out like a sore thumb, so won’t be sneaking off.
He has only his second run outside of the Cape and the first at Greyville and on a right-handed turn. He put up a top-class gallop last Thursday. Do not discount this gelding.
Capetown Noir is fitted with the blinkers but has an awful draw and a stamina question mark
Mother City Magic
Dean Kannemeyer’s Western Winter colt Capetown Noir has had a stamina cloud hanging over his head since his connections aborted a Dubai campaign and decided to aim for the July.
He finished 3,25 lengths behind King Of Pain in the Gold Challenge, without ever looking like winning and now gets the blinkers fitted for the first time.
Some will read that as a crazy move for a horse with stamina doubts and his 15 draw does little to enhance his chances.
On the flipside of the coin, the champion miler had excellent collateral to Vercingetorix and No Worries last season and the victory on Sunday by the latter when slamming 3yo Bezanova, paints another possible scenario.
Capetown Noir ran 4,40 lengths behind Heavy Metal in last year’s July. He put up an impressive gallop last Thursday.
This could be his big day.
Tell It Like It Is
Geoff Woodruff’s Silvano colt Tellina has drawn at 18 and failed at his previous attempt at Greyville in last year’s Daily News when well back.
The four-time winner did not impress either when failing to kick on in his 6,50 length unplaced run behind Killua Castle and Halve The Deficit in the Jubilee at his last outing.
His previous form behind Yorker though certainly brings him into the reckoning.
Khumalo goes for the July double and rides Whiteline Fever
On The Goal Line
Sean Tarry is uniquely represented by two Right Approach 5yo geldings.
The Tarry jockey allocation is an interesting one and we will never who the stable elect is.
Whatever the case, Khumalo jumps aboard Hawaii Stakes winner Whiteline Fever who has been confined to shorter distances in his prep.
He ran an excellent third behind Normanz in the Golden Horse Sprint in May and then ran on steadily in the Gold Challenge last time for a 3,50 length fifth.
His trainer told us three months ago that his target was the July and that Whiteline Fever ‘would stay.’
That is good enough for us.
Double The Fun
The second of the Tarry runners is Halve The Deficit, the mount of the champion Piere Strydom. He is also the Sporting Post’s top-rated choice in the race.
Drawn in midfield, Halve The Deficit showed his wellbeing with a storming second to Killua Castle in the Jubilee last time out and saw Greyville at his previous start when a 2,30 length third to Espumanti in the Betting World 1900.
He meets the De Kock filly on 2,5kgs better terms and comes in to this race as a dark horse who has enjoyed a low-key preparation.
A big runner, if the 3yo’s are to be beaten.
The Australian bred SA Derby winner Wylie Hall looks to have a tough task but the connections are bullish
Land Down Under
Weiho Marwing’s Australian-bred Redoute’s Choice colt Wylie Hall has placed at his last three starts in good company and is a horse who definitely stays every inch of the 2200m.
He has not won since October last year though and the words of Michael Roberts at the official gallops keep coming to mind. Roberts did not like the way he went through his paces.
He would be something of a shock winner in our book.
Chile When Hot
The working class man’s choice! Stan Elley’s Silvano gelding Punta Arenas has been one of the most talked about longshots in the build-up.
Elley hit form this past weekend with a great win in the Cape Winter Derby (his third in that race which included Punta Arenas in 2012) and that confidence booster will have the yard on song for Saturday.
Plagued by bad draws, Punta Arenas is one of those horses who are always seen running on when the game is over.
His recent form is good though. A terrific third in the Met, was followed by a pipe-opener in the Drill Hall Stakes when a 3,85 length fifth to Beach Beauty.
He then came flying at Espumanti when runner-up in the Betting World 1900 and meets her on 2,5kgs better terms for that 2,25 length beating.
His last start in a 1450m Conditions Plate at Clairwood would have brought him on nicely and were it not for that 16 draw, we would have rated him for a top three finish.
The 3yo’s
This group of five (the sixth a 3yo filly has been filed with the girls) have been the ‘flash gang’ of Champions Season with some outstanding races in the mix.
The strength of the form had a slight question mark placed against it when Bezanova was comprehensively slammed by the year older No Worries in the KZN Breeders Million Mile last Sunday. Use it. Lose it. Just a thought!
The brilliant Dynasty colt Legislate is set to put the cherry on the top of a wonderful season
Laying Down The Law
Justin Snaith saddles the Dynasty colt Legislate, who is a current worthy favourite.
What more can one ask of a horse that has won the Cape Derby, the KRA Guineas and the Daily News on the trot?
There are those that are suggesting that he got lucky in the Daily News after the traffic issues impeded Rake’s Chestnut and Louis The King.
Watch the movie again rather. This fellow is top-class and will be difficult to beat.
Crowning Glory
Geoff Woodruff’s Sascoc Triple Crown winning Black Minnaloushe colt Louis The King has had only one run in KZN. That was his third placing 1,30 lengths behind Legislate in the Daily News.
He is now a half kilo better off with the winner and is a horse who looks likely to enjoy the extra 200m. The Greyville home straight remains a cautionary factor and will Louis have the toe to turn it on when it counts?
The Upstart
Woodruff also saddles the Horse Chestnut gelding Rake’s Chestnut, who will be ridden by Anton Marcus from a good draw.
There are sections of the racing fraternity who are questioning how a one-time winner forced his way into the July. Time will answer that debate but for now it is clear that his super effort when taking Legislate all the way to the wire in the Daily News is what swung it for him.
Rake’s Chestnut ran into traffic at the 200m there and had to check and straighten before flying to a short head of Legislate. He finished ahead of Louis The King.
He has only his fifth outing. Does he have the big match temperament and the ability?
Captain America is flying under the radar and could be the dark horse in the race
Saved By A Superhero
The first of Brett Crawford’s 3yo duo is the Captain Al colt, Captain America who receives weight from some of his adversaries.
Captain America has been comprehensively beaten by Legislate the last three times and it is difficult to see 2kgs resulting in a turnaround.
He put up a very good gallop and will be a fit horse but his characteristic inability to really quicken when he gets to within the kill, remains our biggest concern.
Future Imperfect
The second of the Crawford runners is the Dynasty colt Futura.
The question of how good this fellow really is, will be answered on Saturday.
There are many that believe that he has not done enough to take his place in this company. That is an argument that is easily countered though and his acceleration to win the Betting World 1900 consolation was top-drawer stuff. Okay, we know he beat the blind school there.
Then his run in the Cup Trial when beaten by Serissa and One Cool Dude has been used as a yardstick that he will battle here. Kevin Shea who rode the winner said the pace wasn’t that sedentary. More complicating considerations!
And into the bargain for that ‘disappointing soft route’ run is a handy weight of 53kgs, which suddenly gives him a pull of 3kgs with the hotshot 3yo’s.
He put up an impressive gallop last week and well drawn here, it is difficult not seeing him in the firing line after it all ending so well for his connections.
The Fairer Sex
The girls do not have an outstanding record in the race.
Dancer’s Daughter dead-heated with the brilliant Pocket Power in 2008 and then we go back to the brilliant Ipi Tombe’s extraordinary win from miles back in 2002.
We have to go a further eighteen years into the history books to find Devon Air in 1984.
We have learnt to never underestimate Mike De Kock. He saddles Betting World 1900 winner Espumanti
A Northern Princess
Mike De Kock’s UK-bred Dansili filly Espumanti has to give Cherry On The Top a kilo after going down to her in the Gerald Rosenberg.
Espumanti was not 100% fit there though and looked much better when storming home to beat Punta Arenas in the Betting World 1900 last time. She is 2,5kgs worse off with Punta Arenas for a 2,20 length defeat but is infinitely better drawn than the Elley runner.
That win sealed her July berth and she goes in fresh on Saturday with a six week break behind her.
Have A Bite
Ormond Ferraris’ Tiger Ridge filly Cherry On The Top is best remembered as the SA Triple Tiara queen of 2013.
She has had only three runs since finishing downfield in the Summer Cup.
Her victory over Espumanti in the 2000m Gerald Rosenberg at her penultimate start was a first-class effort as she came out to fetch the De Kock galloper.
She now receives weight from Espumanti and put up a sold final prep with a 1,10 length third behind Killua Castle and Halve The Deficit in the Jubilee Handicap three weeks ago.
Her bad draw makes it difficult, but she stays the trip and won’t be stopping. Her trainer is also world-class.
Mile High Club
Glen Kotzen’s Jet Master filly Jet Belle has drawn terribly and currently ranks as the biggest outsider in the race. She is considered by some to be lucky to have made the cut.
She won the Poinsettia Stakes over 1200m at her penultimate start and then went down 4,25 lengths to King Of Pain in the Gold Challenge.
She is 3kgs better off here with the Ramsden runner and while there is little doubt that she stays (based on her Gr1 SA Oaks placing), she looks to have a squeak of a place cheque at best.
Justin Snaith’s In The Fast Lane is the only 3yo filly in the big race
Highway To Fame
Justin Snaith’s Jet Master filly In The Fast Lane is the only 3yo filly in the race.
This cracking good four-time winner gave evidence of her well-being with a superb win beating the top-class Athina in the Woolavington 2000 at her last outing. Kevin Shea who rode Athina in that race said last week that he was impressed by the manner in which In The Fast Lane quickened away from him and rated her to have an ‘excellent chance.’
The Final Analysis
We have all the statistics, the trends, the form and the star players.
Now just to put it together.
We are also on a bit of foreign ground with the new track. Let’s hope that traffic doesn’t spoil things and we are not talking about the usual mid morning rush for on-course parking.
Rain is predicted for Friday. If it comes up soft, then the picture changes again.
Legislate looks the top 3yo and has done little wrong. Halve The Deficit is the best of the older horses with a master jockey to guide him and get the optimum performance out of him.
Capetown Noir is too good a racehorse to discard. If the blinkers work, he could blow them away.
Louis The King’s Triple Crown achievements have already been packed on a shelf. We have short memories in this game.
