Lead-up races to this year’s Sun Met have been fascinating, in respect of the pace at which they were run and the influence of pace on their outcomes.
The way the official handicapper worked out MR ratings for these races has been equally fascinating.
It all started with the Gr2 Green Point Stakes early in December.
The Green Point Stakes finish – Legal Eagle beats Marinaresco
Horse of the Year Legal Eagle made his return to the main stage after an impressive warm-up sprint, two lengths off Trip To Heaven at level weights.
Champion 3yo Marinaresco had been in his seasonal warm-up sprint as well, so the encounter between the champions was much anticipated, even if they weren’t expected to be quite at their peak.
The small field of eight for the 1600m event included the previous year’s winner Captain America and stable companion Sail South. Captain America had met Legal Eagle a few times during the year, in Gauteng and the Cape, coming off worst four times.
Legal Eagle started even money favourite for the Greenpoint Stakes, with Marinaresco at 7/2. Legal Eagle’s pre-race MR was 120, Marinaresco’s 110 – meaning a ten point difference, equivalent to five lengths over 1600m. Both carried the same weight of 60kg. Given the MR ratings it should be no race.
The scenario unfolded dramatically, Sail South setting a pretty much suicidal pace, with stablemate Captain America in second.
Legal Eagle took it easier, but still raced quite close up, with Marinaresco sensibly further back. Sail South predictably ran out of wind, as did Captain America who staggered across the width of the track in the final stages.
Legal Eagle looked to get home comfortably, but his exertions probably told as well and in the end a motoring Marinaresco got to within a long neck.
This was by far the fastest of the three 1600m races on the day, more than 3 seconds quicker than the second fastest, the Gr1 Fillies Guineas. The reading of the race is that the pace was too fast, that Marinaresco was in the right place, and possibly flattered by his proximity to the winner at the finish.
The official handicapper increased Legal Eagle’s rating from 120 to 123, which meant that in the real world Marinaresco’s rating should have gone from 110 to 122. But official handicappers have their hands tied by official Rules, and Marinaresco ended up with a rating of MR 115, which is 8 points or 4 lengths less than Legal Eagle’s MR 123.
Go figure!
The Gr1 Queen’s Plate run over the course and distance early in January was to be the showdown between Legal Eagle and Marinaresco.
The 1600m race is run at weight-for-age, so both carried 60kg, as did Captain America and Sail South. Legal Eagle started odds-on favourite at 13/20, with Marinaresco 2/1, Captain America 28/1, and Sail South 66/1. The official MR’s for them were 123 Legal Eagle, 115 Marinaresco, 114 Captain America (who had been dropped from 117 after the Green Point Stakes), and 112 Sail South.
The pace was a sensible one, set by Captain America’s stable companion Midnight Zone (in the same ownership as Legal Eagle), with Captain America second and Legal Eagle close-up in third. Marinaresco and Sail South were at the back of the field. Legal Eagle got to the front 200m out, going on to win unchallenged by two lengths from Captain America. Sail South, coming from from last, just shaded Marinaresco for third.
This was a true run mile, where the Green Point result was put in perspective, at the same time giving the official handicapper a real headache as to how to rate the race.
Now for the Gr1 Sun Met
Let’s concentrate for a moment on the Sporting Post ratings (AR), which differ from the official ones.
Going back to the Green Point Stakes, the Sporting Post published pre-race ratings for that race looked like this (AR is the actual ability rating, RR the race rating adjusted for weight):
Let’s go crazy for a moment, and imagine that the Green Point never happened (given the assumption about the pace there, that may be a reasonable view).
For the Queen’s Plate it may then make sense to have Captain America as line-horse with AR 112, equalling his career-best rating.
Sail South then runs one below his career-best mark, on AR 110.
Legal Eagle then goes up by 3 points to a new career-best AR 116.
Marinaresco then goes up by 3 points to a new career-best AR 109.
It appears that Marinaresco’s reputation in terms of ratings is based on one race, the Green Point Stakes – not only with Sporting Post, but also the official MR. Although how the official handicapper comes to the current MR ratings is somewhat of a mystery.
So who’ll win the Met?
Captain America – disappointing last time
Captain America ran third last year, from off the pace, in what is on record as a true run race.
He was beaten 4½ lengths by Smart Call, and 1 length by Legal Eagle, all three running to their best ratings.
Captain America gave Legal Eagle ½ kg, which reflects in their ratings: AR 112 vs AR 113.
2016 L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate winner, Legal Eagle
In this year’s Queen’s Plate, which looks true run, Legal Eagle won by 2¼ length from Captain America.
They raced off level weights, their ratings AR 112 and AR 116.
In the Sun Met Legal Eagle has 60kg, and Captain America 58kg – four points difference in terms of ratings, which compares to their AR 112 vs AR 116.
So given the evidence from last year’s Met and this year’s Queen’s Plate, Captain America has as good a chance as Legal Eagle.
Luck in the running could make the difference.
At present Legal Eagle is 15/10 favourite for the Met, with Captain America at 20/1.
Marinaresco carries 59.5kg, giving Captain America 1.5kg. The latter’s rating, both with Sporting Post and the official handicapper, is higher – even before taking into account the weight difference. Marinaresco is presently quoted at around 5/2.
What about the rest?
Current betting shows Whisky Baron and Bela-Bela as the only other two other runners quoted in single figures.
Whisky Baron is on the up
Whisky Baron is an improving 4yo, who scored an impressive victory in the Peninsula handicap over 1800m on Queen’s Plate day. That was a true run race, much like the Queen’s Plate.
Whisky Baron’s AR 101 increased to 104, on which he might still be able to improve somewhat. His official MR went from 103 to 110. Whisky Baron carries 57.5kg in the Met.
Bela-Bela won her last two starts spectacularly. Those races were false run, where she finished fast from off a slow early pace both times. Such efforts do not always translate well to races that are true run.
Bela-Bela – top filly
Bela-Bela was rated MR 107 following her KZN winter season, which increased to 109 after her last win in the Gr1 Paddock Stakes on Queen’s Plate day. A bit different from Sporting Post which had her on AR 104 in KZN, and gave a lower 102 for the narrow Paddock Stakes win. The grey filly carries 57kg.
These ratings, both for AR and official MR, put Marinaresco, Whisky Baron and Bela-Bela in the same ballpark at the weights for the Met. They will have to improve to challenge the favourite.
One more…
Legal Eagle’s stable companion French Navy had a break from July to December, had one warm-up sprint, then was not entirely disgraced in the Queen’s Plate. Last year he ran 2 lengths off Legal Eagle in the Gr1 Champions Challenge at Turffontein over 2000m at level weights, and is 2kg better off this time on 58kg. His MR 115 was dropped to 113 following the Queen’s Plate. French Navy has a Sporting Post AR 110 (ran 103 in the Queen’s Plate), and is quoted at around 40/1 in the betting.
Brazuca was a short-head behind French Navy in the Champions Challenge when Legal Eagle won last April, then was off the track until November, making a winning return.
His next start was in the race won by Whisky Baron, where he set a good pace before throwing in the towel, running well below his best rating. A return to his career-best rating of AR 106 and MR111 puts him in the firing line.
In short, this Met doesn’t appear to be as clear-cut as the betting would suggest.
Captain America and French Navy make for interesting each-way betting opportunities together with Brazuca – with added appeal for swingers, trifecta and quartet bets.
Ratings Rule, OK?
