Another year and the excitement around the country’s greatest race has never been more palpable. Stable talk, rumours, bargains galore but also disappointments and deception have been thrown into the potjie that is this year’s Vodacom Durban July!
At the first nominations 67 (or 68 if you count Wylie Hall) horses were entered by their hopeful owners and trainers, some of them profoundly no hopers! Last year’s first-past-the-post Wylie Hall was not on the initial nomination list but Hollywood recognized the error and immediately included him in the betting at 16/1.
Snaith Dilema
The initial focus was on the Snaith stable which had acquired the 2015 Met winner Futura and also housed the 2014 July winner Legislate. Would they compete? Which was the stable favourite? Which would the stable jockey ride?
Snaith bomb – Futura
Futura was priced up at an attractive 4/1 and Legislate opened at 13/2. The Snaith dilemma was finally put to rest after Legislate’s facile win in the Rising Sun Challenge, where Futura was given a ‘prep run’. The pair would not meet again in the July and Legislate, which was labelled doubtful, was finally scratched.
However, the top of the boards for the opening call was reserved for the star filly Majmu from the globe-trotting Mike De Kock stable. The multiple Group 1 winner was conservatively priced at 7/2 and the stable’s Cape Derby winner Ertijaal was the only other runner quoted in single figures at 8/1. Majmu was subsequently withdrawn from her prep run in the Woolavington and question marks on her fitness now reflect in the market drift to 11/2.
Triple Crown winner Louis The King, which had disappointed in 2014, was on offer at 10/1 and the Gauteng Classic winner French Navy was offered at 14/1. Louis subsequently drifted to 20/1 before being retired from racing, while French Navy ‘took a walk’ in the betting to 33/1 before an impressive Daily News win has him right back in the mix at 11/1.
Early Money
The Conglomerate – drawn in ‘Toti
One of the first horses to attract attention was The Conglomerate. Initially marked up at 100/1 this was claimed and the 66/1 was also snapped up by astute punters. The Joey Ramsden inmate settled at around 33/1 and this price was nibbled at by punters before the KZN Guineas. When he won that race convincingly the price was slashed to 8/1 and many punters were smiling! He has eased to 14/1 as support come for other horses.
There was strong interest in Tellina’s opening call of 33/1 into 25/1 before easing right out to 50/1 and finding further support and being backed to a current price of 22/1. The Cape challenger Power King opened at 50/1 and shrewd money saw the Kannemeyer gelding shorten to 20/1.
The De Kock horse, Jayyed found early support at 40/1 but he failed to live up to the stable talk in his preparation races and drifted right out to 250/1 before being officially scratched.
The Law
Punta Arenas – value!
Hollywood opened the current favourite Legal Eagle at 66/1 (although the ABC blog has indicated 150/1 was on offer momentarily) and he traded at 45/1 before his eye-catching performance in the Derby, where he downed numerous July hopefuls with contemptuous ease. Unsure of the collateral form he shortened to 14/1 and was steadily supported before another impressive victory in the Jubilee Handicap saw him propel to the top of the boards at 5/2. Some ecstatic punters with 66/1 or even 14/1 will be praising the concept of ante-post betting!!
Bargain hunters have also found value in the Stan Elley trained, perennial place-getter Punta Arenas which was priced up at 100/1. He won his first race in 2-years in June’s Cup Trial and the price has tumbled to 25/1 (the same as the opening place price). The veteran trainer has a second string to his bow in the form of Dynastic Power which opened at 150/1 but then beat a host of contenders in the Greyville 1900 and shortened to 33/1. However a subsequent below par performance saw this one drift to 55/1 before the final field was announced.
Hard Luck Cases
Ertijaal….who?
In stark contrast to the joy of the Legal Eagle punters are the hard luck stories that befell the backers of Ertijaal, Louis The King, Legislate, Siren’s Call, Inara and others. As mentioned, Ertijaal was well fancied, opening at 8/1 easing to 20/1 before shortening again on the strength of his Daily News run to 10/1. However, all’s not well at home and he has been scratched. Louis The king has been retired and Legislate is being considered a stallion prospect after rumours abounded that he would not run in the July and he drifted from 13/2 to 16/1.
Siren’s Call side-stepped the Woolavington (and a possible clash with Majmu) to race in the Daily News but came unstuck against ‘boys’. She had eased from 20/1 to 33/1 before being scratched. Inara (33/1 to 66/1) simply failed to live up to her earlier form in the same Woolavington and her connections wisely withdrew. Kochka (150/1 to 90/1) failed in his prep run over a similar distance and will be kept to shorter trips. Worst case of all, Arion (50/1) passed away before getting his chance to run.
The final field contains two reserve runners, Dynamic and Mac De Lago (125/1), both owned by the flamboyant Hassan Adams. Dynamic had attracted support from 66/1 to 33/1 while Mac De Lago was a supplementary nomination after decent efforts in the Guineas and Daily News.
The Middle Pins
Maybe the value can still be found in the ‘middle pins’. These are the horses where a case can be made depending on your persuasion. The likes of Deputy Jud (40/1 to 25/1) has been consistent in the 3-year-old features and could surprise. Pine Princess (45/1 to 33/1) has similar form in the 3-year-old fillies races and hails from the De Kock yard, while Halve The Deficit, having his second crack at the July, is a consistent performer which might represent value at 33/1.
Then we have the likes of Ice Machine (150/1 to 45/1), 2015 Met placed Gold Onyx (80/1 to 55/1) and Helderberg Blue (100/1 to 55/1) who could all upset the party and fulfil the dream for their owners.
The Roughies
Bling rides longshot Tamaanee
You can’t win without a ticket will be the claim of the outsiders. Long-shots have won this great race before and those wearing that tag this year include the fifth of Sean Tarry’s runners Tamanee at 66/1 and recent KZN Derby runner-up Hot Ticket (55/1).
The Fourth of July 2015, American Independence Day and coincidentally the first time in 37 years that the American Triple Crown has been won (by American Pharoah), will be memorable for one team of owner, trainer, jockey and stable-hands. French Navy, Power King, Deputy Jud and Futura, in no particular order, are my selections in what is a wide open race.
Have fun!
“No one has ever bet enough on a winning horse” Richard Sasuly, author.
