Welwitschia - Impressive latest win
Gr2 Charity Mile over 1400m at Turffontein (standside) on Saturday
Mike de Kock sends out nearly one third of the 16 runner field for Saturday’s Peermont Emperors Palace Charity Mile on the standside track at Turffontein and it may be Welwitschia who represents the champion trainer’s best chance of landing the spoils in this valuable handicap, writes MATTHEW LIPS.
De Kock won this race with a filly – Alderry – twelve months ago and Welwitschia gives every indication of being a horse whose best days are still to come. Bred to northern hemisphere time and so several months behind her southern-bred contemporaries, the four-year-old returned from a 26 week lay-off to run out the impressive winner of a Gr3 WFA race against her own gender over 1450m on the Turffontein inner course four weeks ago. The daughter of Oasis Dream was in control from well over 200m out before beating Dancewith-thedevil by 2.25 lengths and could even have improved more with that run. She is entitled to be a considerably better horse now than when she was beaten four lengths by Dancewiththedevil in the Gr1 Empress Club Stakes over this course-and-distance in April and could reverse that form here, but as always the Charity Mile promises to be a highly competitive affair.
Dancewiththedevil
Dancewiththedevil will certainly enjoy the return to the stiff standside course and she was running on after appearing to race somewhat in snatches when beaten by Welwitschia last time out. She meets De Kock’s filly on 3.5 kgs worse terms compared to that race, but the course-and-distance of the Charity Mile will suit Dancewiththedevil admirably and softer going would be the cherry on the cake. She is capable of a very strong finish and merits healthy respect even under 61.5 kgs top weight. She is not well drawn, but with her style of racing from a long way off the pace that should mean virtually nothing.
Kavanagh
The talented but somewhat enigmatic Kavanagh has been found wanting in the final stages every time he has raced over 1600m and still has something to prove stamina-wise, but he is an older horse now and may still prove fully effective at the distance. He put some very disappointing KZN winter performances behind him when easily winning a set weights event over 1400m on this course last month and appears to be back to his best. He won more comfortably than the one length margin suggests and looked to still have quite a lot left in the tank. That obviously doesn’t prove that he will be as effective over 1600m, but it is possible and if it does prove to be the case then Kavanagh may be quite nicely handicapped in this field.
Pierre Jourdan
Pierre Jourdan made a very good seasonal debut when he quickened impressively to beat Without Malice by half-a-length in a set weights event over 1450m on the inner track in September. They did all finish in something of a bunch and the form on paper doesn’t make for particularly great reading, but Pierre Jourdan probably won with rather more panache than the bare result would imply. Gary Alexander’s gelding ran the race of his life when chasing home Igugu in the Vodacom Durban July and could improve on his well beaten third in this event last year. He has never won on handicap terms, but the July must erase any doubts that exist about his ability to win merit rated contests even though he was penalised a further two pounds for his Greyville exploits.
Engagement
Dancewiththedevil’s stable companion Engagement is weighted with a chance on a literal reading of her most recent effort over 1450m, where she was beaten 2.5 lengths into third behind Welwitschia on 4 kgs worse terms than these. She faces Dancewiththedevil on fully 7.5 kgs better terms for a difference of just a neck that day and is by no means incapable of landing the spoils despite an unfavourable draw. Against her, though, is that she was beaten out of sight in both of her two previous attempts over this course-and-distance, in races that were both won by Dancewiththedevil. Engagement has been considerably more effective on the Turffontein inner course, where she won a Listed handicap over 1600m against females in May. Still, she has a theoretical chance of winning this.
D J Detzky
D J Detzky is coming to hand and enjoys a 3.5 kgs pull with Kavanagh for a 1.5 lengths beating over 1400m in October. He faces Pierre Jourdan on no fewer than 7 kgs more favourable terms for a difference of two lengths over 1450m in September and has won three times over this longer distance. Louis Goosen’s gelding appears to have had a very good prep going into this and must be afforded plenty of respect at the weights, but he has a rotten draw one from the outside. D J Detzky can be an effective frontrunner, but plenty of use may need to be made of him to overcome the draw and that could find him out when push comes to shove.
Bulsara
Soft going would be a boost to the chances of Bulsara, who has raced twice this season and who hinted at a possible return to form when beaten four lengths behind Soul Master in a set weights race over 1800m on the inner track a fortnight ago. He is 5 kgs better off with Dancewiththedevil fir a beating of 3.15 lengths in soggy going over 1600m at Clairwood in June and would have a realistic chance if now back to his very best.
Two Tone
Two Tone was staying on when beaten one length by Kavanagh over 1400m last time, but he has never won beyond 1200m and now tries a mile for the first time. He cannot be at all certain to stay this far, especially on the testing Turffontein course and all the more so should the going come up soft. In any case he only meets Kavanagh on half-a-kg better terms and others make greater appeal.
The Mouseketeer
The Mouseketeer has been in terrific form on the Vaal sand this season, winning a Gr3 over 1200m before running on well to beat Eastern Cobbler by a widening 1.75 lengths in the Gr2 Emerald Cup over 1450m in September. He now races off a three pound higher mark in what is unquestionably a stronger contest, but he is very effective on turf and won the KZN Breeders Stakes over 1600m at Clairwood the last time he was seen on grass. He is unbeaten from two tries at 1600m and makes some appeal again, especially as the Sean Tarry yard has been in good form for some time now, but the feeling is that The Mouseketeer may have bitten off a bit more than he can chew this time.
Black Wing
Black Wing was reported to be running a high temperature after he finished a disappointing last in the Vodacom Durban July and is surely better than that even if the blanket finish to the Daily News 2000 may have flattered a good number of those who contested it. Paul Gadsby’s gelding was returning from a 15 week rest when he set a very slow pace before being beaten half-a-length by Antious in a frankly farcical set weights event over 1600m at Clairwood recently and is likely to have benefitted from that outing. He has won twice over a mile and enjoys the best of the draw, but this is a handicap and there is every chance that his merit rating is inflated by his proximity to The Apache and company in the Daily News 2000. If that is indeed the case then he is right up against it here, and all things considered it seems wise to look elsewhere.
Rudra
Rudra probably needed the run after a 24 week lay-off when beaten 4.5 lengths behind Kavanagh recently, but his merit rating looks to be decidedly on the high side and he makes little appeal at the weights in a strong field like this. Flirtation prefers more ground and is no doubt being aimed for the Gr1 Sansui Summer Cup over 2000m at the end of November, a race she won with a terrific late dash from off the pace last year. She made no show and was beaten 7.75 lengths behind stable companion Welwitschia over 1450m on her seasonal debut. Empenoso Henn completes the five-pronged attack from the De Kock yard. He is a promising sort, but has much more to do than when winning a recent course-and-distance graduation plate and he will need to lift his game plan a few notches to have a serious chance. Riding arrangements don’t really speak in his favour, either.
Mike’s Choice
Mike’s Choice is consistent in KZN, but he rises in class and could be vulnerable over this distance after he lacked extra late (despite the very slow early pace) and finished two lengths behind Black Wing in the race won by Antious. Knock On Wood has been rested 18 weeks since easily winning a very mundane winter handicap over 1600m at the Vaal and is being hurled in at the deep end. His form is highly consistent and his trainer Ormond Ferraris doesn’t enter horses in big race just for saddling practice, but it is still asking an awful lot of Knock On Wood. His 1.25 lengths second behind subsequent Gr1 winner Happy Archer while conceding the latter 3.5 kgs over 1450m in April does make for good reading, though, and while others remain preferred Ferraris’ gelding isn’t without some sort of a shout.
Wittenberg
Wittenberg didn’t seem to take to racing on sand when he imploded after leading early and was beaten 49 lengths behind Bouquet-Garni over 1450m in August, but something else may also have been to blame for that fiasco and he has been rested three months since. His earlier form on turf included a very close second behind Brown Penny in a 1600m Listed handicap at Greyville in July, but this still represents a very real step up in class and he makes little appeal.
Reserve Runners
That leaves the reserve runners Across The Ice and Mahogany. The former doesn’t lack for ability, but he is not very consistent and has a poor draw. He may be at his best over a little less than 1600m, although he did drew clear easily when winning over 1400m in sticky going at Greyville in July. Mahogany looks outclassed, irrespective of who comes out in order for him to even get a spot in the final line-up.
About The Pace
The race formerly known as the (Germiston) November Handicap has produced plenty of surprises in its time, not least when Grand Format won at huge odds in heavy going back in 2002, and the possibility of another long-priced winner is real. That is what handicap racing is all about, and one can make a case in theory for a great number of horses that won’t be much fancied by most punters, but we have to nail our colours to the mast and it is progressive Welwitschia who is taken to win from Dancewiththedevil, Kavanagh, Pierre Jourdan, and Engagement. D J Detzky is not without a winning chance if Piere Strydom can get him over from his lousy draw quickly, and he appeals as a possible candidate for the role of frontrunner. Engagement is another who could make the running, while The Mouseketeer has won over 1600m making all, so the Charity Mile should at least be run at a reasonable gallop and not turn into a sprint for home.
