Numbers Game. Snaith’s Count To Ten is weighted to win the Listed Breeders Guineas
Tara Laing holds a strong hand in Friday’s Listed Breeders Guineas with a nice coupling, but her former boss could give her some overtime headaches with his two runners. The Snaith’s Count To Ten looks handicapped to win the race, but has drawn poorly.
The bubbly Tara Laing has taken her transition to the male dominated world of training winning racehorses in her stride, and with the powerful backing of the Markus Jooste string has more than held her own.
There were many who thought she was crazy to jump ship when she did and was far better off in the relative comfort of the Snaith team. But the two blondes have bumped heads many times on the track since her departure, and she doesn’t always come off second best.
Looks Best
Sixteen 3yo fillies line up in the R130 000 Listed Breeders Guineas, and at level weights and assuming the handicapper has it right, Snaith’s Count To Ten looks best, despite a poor draw.
The daughter of Count Dubois won 2 of her 4 starts in Cape Town, before finding Rumya too hot to handle in the Cape Fillies Guineas, when running 11,35 lengths back. In her defence, she was apparently not striding out there, and could register her third win, if running to her best. The handicapper would think so, anyway.
Well Bred
Her stablemate Valor Red is one of those typically well bred Team Valor International fillies. A winner of 1 of her 7 starts, she tries the mile for the first time and brings some of the Breeders Guineas Plate form into the race.
This race run three weeks ago at Arlington over 1400m provides us with collateral for seven of Friday’s participants. On paper it also suggests that Valor Red will again finish behind Tudor Star, as she is 4 kgs worse off for a 5,75 length beating.
Tara Laing’s Tudor Star has hit top form at her last four starts, and on her narrow loss in the Breeders Guineas Plate looks the right one. She was pipped by Scented Ash there, whom she now meets on 4kgs better terms
Promising
Laing’s second runner is the former Gauteng filly Leeway, who is Listed race placed and looked very promising before losing her form late in 2012. She had a prep run over the course and distance a fortnight ago, and while not showing too much, should have come along with that. She did however make a worrying respiratory noise, so needs to be selected and punted with circumspection and wide open eyes!
The Magic Kingdom is a very game and consistent daughter of Var, who ran a succession of four second places in a row, before some bad luck in the Aloe Handicap saw her being eased at a crucial stage of the race. She could bounce back here, with better luck in running. Scented Ash, a winner of 2 of her 12 starts, came up at 14 to 1 in the Breeders Guineas Plate, but as noted could be held by Tudor Star on that.
Spirited
The lightly raced Silvan Spirit won over the course and distance at her second time of asking, and ran a fair third over 1800m in a MR 71 Handicap last time, when not striding out.
The recent maiden winner Majestic Beauty has plenty of scope for improvement, but a victory in Listed company at her post maiden run seems unlikely. She is another who has made respiratory noises at her last two starts.
Olympic Victory has pulled the best draw, but is held by all of Scented Ash, Tudor Star and Valor Red on her Breeders Guineas Plate run. The beautifully bred daughter of Victory Moon also took some fourteen runs to win her maiden, so she is either limited or a late developer. For the rest, it could be more hope than logic.
The former champion juvenile Deepo continues to battle to regain her best form. She ran a fair second in a troubled finish to the Aloe Handicap behind Tudor Star, and meets the Laing filly on 3,5kgs better terms. But Deepo faded badly in the Breeders Guineas Plate last time, and looks unlikely.
Capable
Corne Spies’ Hazel Jay gets a capable 4kg claimer, but has shown nothing since winning her maiden over 1800m at Kenilworth in early February, and has drawn poorly.
Dreamwalker ran stone last in the Breeders Guineas Plate and has no chance on that from a wide draw here. Shazza is another who comes out of the Breeders Guineas Plate form without distinction. Katie Em has won once from her six starts, and tries this distance for the first time. On breeding she should easily go the mile, but needs to up her game generally.
Jacques Strydom’s Empress Tibbs has not been finishing too far back since shedding her maiden over the course and distance, but has little chance at the weights, even with a nominal apprentice claim. Iamtheone won her maiden over 1200m at Fairview in December, but tries more ground after two flat efforts over shorter.
Scrambled
The Cape form brought in by the highly rated Count To Ten scrambles our picture somewhat. At level weights, and with Bernard Fayd’herbe up, she looks very strong. On the other hand, hometown experience points to Tudor Star. Then we cannot discount the likes of The Magic Kingdom, Valor Red and Leeway.
